Nick Kallerup

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 42.5
Implied team total: 24.8
Depth: #4
Recent snaps: 27%

25 yrs · 6′5″, 266 lb · Minnesota

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Receiving
Receiving yards	4.3	0.0 – 11.7	–	Little to go on
Receptions	1.0	0.0 – 1.5	–	Little to go on
Longest reception	11.6	1.8 – 22.2	–	Little to go on
Rush + rec yards	4.9	0.0 – 15.4	–	Little to go on
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	3.5%	no range	+2746	Little to go on
First TD scorer	1.8%	no range	+5507	Little to go on

Form

Window	GP	Tgt	Tgt share	WOPR	RZ tgt	Snap%
Last 3	3	0.0	0%	0.00	–	20%
Last 5	4	0.3	2%	0.04	1.00	27%
Last 10	4	0.3	2%	0.04	1.00	27%

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	Rec TD	Tgt share	WOPR	RZ tgt	Snap%	PPR
2025	4	1	0	0	0	2%	0	1	27%	0

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

No injury report entries on record. Reports go back to 2009, so this is genuinely a clean sheet rather than missing data — unless he arrived before then.

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Anytime TD	4	9% vs 0%	0.1	-0.1
Receptions	4	100%	0.6	-0.6
Receiving yards	4	100%	7.0	-7.0
Rush + rec yards	4	100%	5.9	-5.9
First TD scorer	4	2% vs 0%	0.0	-0.0

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 4 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt
2025 wk 15	IND	17%	0
2025 wk 13	MIN	31%	0
2025 wk 11	LA	13%	0
2025 wk 10	ARI	48%	1