Tetairoa McMillan
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 24.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 87%
23 yrs · 6′5″, 212 lb · Arizona · 2025 rd 1 pk 8
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.3 | 0.0 – 17.0 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 51.2 | 12.6 – 90.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.1 | 1.0 – 5.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 25.2 | 9.2 – 42.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 49.8 | 7.5 – 108.4 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 31.8% | no range | +214 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 7.1% | no range | +1304 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 64.3 | 0.00 | 22% | 0.53 | 1.67 | 86% | 9.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 71.8 | 0.00 | 21% | 0.52 | 1.50 | 87% | 11.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 54.0 | 0.30 | 21% | 0.61 | 1.50 | 85% | 10.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 64.3 | 0.00 | 22% | 0.53 | 1.67 | 86% | 9.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 193 | 0 | 22% | 2 | 5 | 86% | 29 |
| 2025 | 17 | 122 | 70 | 1,014 | 7 | 26% | 12 | 15 | 87% | 213 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 1 season · most often calf
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 18 | 89% | 1.9 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 18 | 78% | 25.4 | +7.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 18 | 89% | 27.0 | +5.7 |
| Anytime TD | 18 | 26% vs 28% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 18 | 83% | 8.2 | +2.5 |
| First TD scorer | 18 | 6% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CLE | 95% | 5 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  ATL | 80% | 10 | 5 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CHI | 82% | 8 | 5 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  LA | 90% | 7 | 5 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  TB | 88% | 6 | 4 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  SEA | 83% | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | TB | 87% | 10 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NO | 84% | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | LA | 73% | 2 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  SF | 91% | 7 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |