Jordan Watkins
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.3
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 17%
24 yrs · 5′11″, 196 lb · Mississippi; Louisville · 2025 rd 4 pk 138
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.9 | 0.0 – 15.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 20.0 | 0.0 – 50.0 | – | Little to go on |
| Receptions | 1.6 | 0.0 – 3.0 | – | Little to go on |
| Longest reception | 20.5 | 4.5 – 35.2 | – | Little to go on |
| Rush + rec yards | 20.3 | 0.0 – 46.6 | – | Little to go on |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 6.6% | no range | +1409 | Little to go on |
| First TD scorer | 1.3% | no range | +7776 | Little to go on |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 28.7 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.16 | – | 17% | 4.2 |
| Last 5 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 28.7 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.16 | – | 17% | 4.2 |
| Last 10 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 28.7 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.16 | – | 17% | 4.2 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 60.0 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.19 | – | 28% | 8.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 8% | 0 | – | 28% | 8 |
| 2025 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 5% | 0 | – | 12% | 5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · 5 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often calf
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 2 | 6% vs 0% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Receptions | 2 | 100% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 2 | 100% | 7.4 | +4.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | +6.0 |
| Longest reception | 2 | 100% | 7.3 | +4.7 |
| First TD scorer | 2 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
