Tez Johnson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 17.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 21%
24 yrs · 5′10″, 165 lb · Oregon; Troy · 2025 rd 7 pk 235
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.6 | 0.0 – 15.8 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 15.8 | 0.0 – 44.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 0.0 – 3.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.2 | 4.4 – 33.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 16.0 | 0.0 – 49.4 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 8.9% | no range | +1024 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.5% | no range | +6787 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 19.0 | 0.00 | 7% | 0.24 | 1.00 | 25% | 2.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 18.6 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.19 | 1.00 | 21% | 2.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 12.4 | 0.10 | 7% | 0.19 | 1.25 | 38% | 3.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 19.0 | 0.00 | 7% | 0.24 | 1.00 | 25% | 2.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 7% | 1 | 2 | 25% | 7 |
| 2025 | 15 | 44 | 28 | 322 | 5 | 9% | 4 | 7 | 47% | 92 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
No injury report entries on record. Reports go back to 2009, so this is genuinely a clean sheet rather than missing data — unless he arrived before then.
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 15 | 80% | 1.3 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 15 | 67% | 19.4 | +1.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 15 | 60% | 18.2 | +2.1 |
| Anytime TD | 15 | 14% vs 27% | 0.3 | +0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 15 | 3% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 12 | 75% | 9.6 | +2.7 |
| Longest rush | 4 | 100% | 0.6 | -0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  MIN | 23% | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CLE | 29% | 4 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CIN | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CAR | 13% | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  MIA | 16% | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | CAR | 25% | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  ATL | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  ARI | 57% | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  LA | 86% | 4 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  BUF | 83% | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |