Matthew Golden
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 80%
23 yrs · 5′11″, 191 lb · Texas; Houston · 2025 rd 1 pk 23
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.5 | 0.0 – 16.3 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 39.8 | 9.1 – 87.1 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.1 | 1.0 – 5.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.4 | 7.3 – 39.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 43.7 | 8.8 – 97.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 20.0% | no range | +399 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 9.6% | no range | +942 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 84.3 | 0.33 | 25% | 0.64 | 2.00 | 83% | 15.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 69.0 | 0.40 | 23% | 0.58 | 2.00 | 80% | 13.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 43.6 | 0.20 | 16% | 0.40 | 1.33 | 56% | 8.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 84.3 | 0.33 | 25% | 0.64 | 2.00 | 83% | 15.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 30 | 15 | 253 | 1 | 25% | 2 | 4 | 83% | 46 |
| 2025 | 14 | 44 | 29 | 361 | 0 | 12% | 5 | 2 | 53% | 70 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 1 season · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 15 | 87% | 1.4 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 15 | 73% | 25.2 | +5.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 15 | 67% | 28.4 | +3.5 |
| Anytime TD | 15 | 15% vs 7% | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 15 | 4% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 12 | 75% | 12.0 | +3.7 |
| Longest rush | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | -0.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  ATL | 82% | 12 | 5 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NYJ | 86% | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  MIN | 82% | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  CHI | 49% | 5 | 4 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | MIN | 100% | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  BAL | 53% | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | CHI | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DEN | 35% | 4 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | CHI | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  NYG | 35% | 3 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |