Luther Burden III
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 23.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 61%
22 yrs · 6′0″, 210 lb · Missouri · 2025 rd 2 pk 39
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.3 | 0.0 – 16.0 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 46.3 | 10.5 – 94.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.0 | 1.0 – 6.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.3 | 7.7 – 38.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 44.4 | 9.0 – 107.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 24.7% | no range | +305 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.1% | no range | +1875 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 52.0 | 0.33 | 25% | 0.57 | 3.00 | 64% | 11.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 44.4 | 0.20 | 21% | 0.48 | 3.00 | 61% | 9.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 57.9 | 0.20 | 21% | 0.45 | 2.50 | 59% | 11.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 52.0 | 0.33 | 25% | 0.57 | 3.00 | 64% | 11.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 156 | 1 | 25% | 2 | 6 | 64% | 36 |
| 2025 | 15 | 60 | 47 | 652 | 2 | 13% | 4 | 4 | 40% | 128 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 17 | 76% | 1.4 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 17 | 53% | 28.3 | +5.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 17 | 65% | 29.7 | +5.0 |
| Anytime TD | 17 | 13% vs 12% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 17 | 71% | 13.4 | +0.9 |
| First TD scorer | 17 | 3% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 8 | 63% | 5.7 | +1.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  PHI | 61% | 11 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIN | 57% | 7 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  CAR | 73% | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  LA | 53% | 7 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  GB | 63% | 7 | 3 | 42 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  DET | 62% | 4 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  SF | 58% | 9 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CLE | 39% | 7 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | GB | 71% | 6 | 4 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | PHI | 51% | 6 | 4 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |