Aaron Rodgers

PIT@

CLE

97% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 38.5
Implied team total: 20.5
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 97%

42 yrs · 6′2″, 223 lb · California; Butte College · 2005 rd 1 pk 24

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Line	Price	P(over)	Value	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	225.2	88.4 – 303.0	214.5	-113 / -111DK	54%	+2.2%over	Solid
Passing TDs	1.4	0.0 – 2.6	1.5	+152 / -196DK	40%	+0.6%over	Solid
Completions	22.1	10.1 – 30.1	20.5	+110 / -140DK	49%	+2.3%over	Solid
Pass attempts	33.1	19.9 – 44.9	34.5	-103 / -124DK	40%	+8.0%under	Solid
Interceptions	0.7	0.0 – 2.0	0.5	+104 / -133DK	70%	+42.8%over	Solid
Pass + rush yards	232.0	107.6 – 314.0	219.5	-114 / -112DK	55%	+4.0%over	Solid
Longest completion	38.8	19.9 – 56.8	33.5	-118 / -110DK	49%	no bet	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	6.8	0.0 – 16.1	1.5	-106 / -118DK	73%	+41.7%over	Solid
Rush attempts	2.5	0.0 – 4.6	–	–	–	–	Solid
Longest rush	6.3	0.4 – 15.0	2.5	-111 / -116DK	75%	+42.2%over	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	7.8%	no range	yes	+1500 / –DK	–	+24.2%doubt	Solid
First TD scorer	1.0%	no range	yes	+5500 / –DK	–	no bet	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	37.7	22.0	233.3	1.33	0.67	2.3	4.0	2.67	13.1
Last 5	5	38.6	22.8	228.0	1.00	0.60	1.6	6.4	2.80	11.8
Last 10	10	35.5	21.8	219.9	0.90	0.30	1.4	4.7	2.20	12.3
2026 season	3	37.7	22.0	233.3	1.33	0.67	2.3	4.0	2.67	13.1

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	113	66	700	4	2	7	12	8	39
2025	16	498	327	3,322	24	7	21	61	29	227
2024	17	584	368	3,897	28	11	22	107	40	257
2023	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
2022	17	542	350	3,695	26	12	34	94	32	239
2021	16	531	366	4,115	37	4	33	101	30	333
2020	16	526	372	4,299	48	5	38	149	20	383
2019	16	569	353	4,002	26	4	46	183	36	278
2018	16	597	372	4,442	25	2	43	269	49	313
2017	7	238	154	1,675	16	6	24	126	–	130
2016	16	610	401	4,428	40	7	67	369	–	380
2015	16	572	347	3,821	31	8	58	344	–	301
2014	16	520	341	4,381	38	5	43	269	–	354
2013	9	290	193	2,536	17	6	30	120	–	169
2012	16	552	371	4,295	39	8	54	259	–	345
2011	15	501	342	4,636	45	6	60	257	–	397
2010	15	475	312	3,922	28	11	64	356	–	304
2009	16	541	350	4,434	30	7	59	304	–	342
2008	16	536	341	4,038	28	13	56	207	–	290
2007	2	28	20	218	1	0	7	29	–	16
2006	2	15	6	46	0	0	2	11	–	1
2005	3	16	9	65	0	1	2	7	–	-3

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

17 injury entries across 11 seasons · 15 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often collarbone

2025Wrist

2023Achilles×6

2018Knee×3

2017Right Collarbone

2016CalfHamstring

2015right Shoulder

2014Calf×3Hamstring

2013Collarbone×8

2012Calf×3Ankle

2010Concussion×3Ankle

2009Feet×2Foot×2Ribs

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	105	85%	50.7	+4.7
Passing TDs	105	82%	1.0	-0.0
Completions	105	88%	4.1	+0.5
Rushing yards	105	82%	8.1	+0.2
Pass attempts	105	85%	5.9	+0.8
Interceptions	105	93%	0.7	-0.1
Pass + rush yards	105	82%	53.7	+3.0
Rush attempts	105	87%	1.5	-0.0
Anytime TD	105	10% vs 10%	0.2	-0.0
First TD scorer	105	2% vs 2%	0.0	-0.0
Longest completion	104	79%	12.6	+1.8
Longest rush	73	75%	4.5	+0.8

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	CIN	100%	0	0	0	3	10	292	3
2026 wk 2	NE	96%	0	0	0	1	5	187	0
2026 wk 1	ATL	100%	0	0	0	3	-3	221	1
2025 wk 19	HOU	89%	0	0	0	0	0	146	0
2025 wk 18	BAL	100%	0	0	0	1	20	294	1
2025 wk 17	CLE	100%	0	0	0	1	6	168	0
2025 wk 16	DET	100%	0	0	0	2	9	266	1
2025 wk 15	MIA	100%	0	0	0	0	0	224	2
2025 wk 14	BAL	100%	1	1	-9	2	0	284	2
2025 wk 13	BUF	84%	0	0	0	1	0	117	0