Travis Kelce
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 26.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 83%
36 yrs · 6′5″, 250 lb · Cincinnati · 2013 rd 3 pk 63
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 36.4 | 9.6 – 81.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.1 | 1.0 – 6.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 21.3 | 6.9 – 35.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 42.6 | 9.1 – 93.4 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 26.2% | no range | +282 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.5% | no range | +1441 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 77.0 | 0.67 | 18% | 0.42 | 1.00 | 78% | 16.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 55.8 | 0.40 | 21% | 0.48 | 1.00 | 83% | 12.4 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 45.1 | 0.30 | 20% | 0.46 | 1.00 | 86% | 10.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 77.0 | 0.67 | 18% | 0.42 | 1.00 | 78% | 16.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 231 | 2 | 18% | 1 | 2 | 78% | 49 |
| 2025 | 17 | 108 | 76 | 851 | 5 | 20% | 7 | 13 | 82% | 193 |
| 2024 | 16 | 133 | 97 | 823 | 3 | 23% | 8 | 27 | 85% | 195 |
| 2023 | 15 | 121 | 93 | 984 | 5 | 22% | 7 | 20 | 77% | 219 |
| 2022 | 17 | 152 | 110 | 1,338 | 12 | 25% | 9 | 32 | 80% | 316 |
| 2021 | 16 | 134 | 92 | 1,125 | 9 | 22% | 8 | 17 | 82% | 263 |
| 2020 | 15 | 145 | 105 | 1,416 | 11 | 25% | 8 | 22 | 86% | 313 |
| 2019 | 16 | 136 | 97 | 1,229 | 5 | 25% | 9 | 19 | 92% | 254 |
| 2018 | 16 | 150 | 103 | 1,336 | 10 | 27% | 9 | 27 | 95% | 295 |
| 2017 | 15 | 122 | 83 | 1,038 | 8 | 24% | 8 | 20 | 92% | 234 |
| 2016 | 16 | 117 | 85 | 1,125 | 4 | 22% | 8 | 19 | 86% | 223 |
| 2015 | 16 | 103 | 72 | 875 | 5 | 22% | 8 | 14 | 92% | 190 |
| 2014 | 16 | 87 | 67 | 862 | 5 | 19% | 7 | 13 | 68% | 177 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
12 injury entries across 8 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often groin
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 131 | 78% | 2.2 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 131 | 75% | 29.3 | +1.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 131 | 76% | 29.6 | +0.9 |
| Anytime TD | 131 | 37% vs 44% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 131 | 77% | 8.7 | +0.9 |
| First TD scorer | 131 | 8% vs 9% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  MIA | 79% | 2 | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  IND | 85% | 11 | 9 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DEN | 71% | 5 | 3 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LV | 80% | 6 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | DEN | 98% | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  TEN | 78% | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LAC | 98% | 9 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  HOU | 91% | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DAL | 91% | 6 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 | IND | 88% | 6 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |