Geno Smith

NYJ@

CHI

92% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 43.5
Implied team total: 20.0
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 98%

35 yrs · 6′3″, 221 lb · West Virginia · 2013 rd 2 pk 39

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	233.0	111.4 – 321.5	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.4	0.0 – 2.9	–	Solid
Completions	20.3	11.4 – 28.5	–	Solid
Pass attempts	30.7	17.1 – 41.7	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.6	0.0 – 2.1	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	245.7	117.7 – 336.5	–	Solid
Longest completion	39.4	19.9 – 57.1	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	12.7	0.0 – 27.7	–	Solid
Rush attempts	3.0	1.0 – 6.1	–	Solid
Longest rush	9.0	1.7 – 17.1	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	10.1%	no range	+894	Solid
First TD scorer	2.0%	no range	+4895	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	34.0	25.7	261.0	1.33	0.00	4.3	12.0	3.00	17.0
Last 5	5	30.6	22.6	232.0	1.40	0.60	2.8	7.4	3.00	14.4
Last 10	10	30.9	21.7	210.7	1.20	0.60	2.7	6.4	4.30	12.5
2026 season	3	34.0	25.7	261.0	1.33	0.00	4.3	12.0	3.00	17.0

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	102	77	783	4	0	13	36	9	51
2025	15	448	302	3,025	19	17	41	109	55	174
2024	17	578	407	4,320	21	15	53	272	50	266
2023	15	499	323	3,624	20	9	37	155	31	227
2022	17	572	399	4,282	30	11	68	366	46	304
2021	4	95	65	702	5	1	9	42	13	54
2020	1	5	4	33	0	0	2	-2	1	1
2018	4	4	1	8	0	0	8	2	0	-1
2017	2	36	21	212	1	0	4	12	–	10
2016	2	14	8	126	1	1	2	9	–	8
2015	1	42	27	265	2	1	2	34	–	20
2014	14	367	219	2,525	13	13	59	238	–	151
2013	16	443	247	3,046	12	21	72	366	–	195

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

10 injury entries across 5 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle

2025AnkleShoulder

2023Groin×2right Elbow

2015Jaw×3left Shoulder×2Illness

2014right Shoulder×3

2013Ankle×5right Wrist

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	70	80%	58.3	+10.9
Passing TDs	70	90%	0.8	+0.1
Completions	70	84%	4.9	+0.7
Rushing yards	70	69%	11.4	-0.2
Pass attempts	70	84%	6.3	+1.6
Interceptions	70	87%	0.7	+0.0
Pass + rush yards	70	77%	59.0	+12.0
Rush attempts	70	93%	1.4	-0.0
Anytime TD	70	13% vs 7%	0.2	-0.1
First TD scorer	70	2% vs 3%	0.1	+0.0
Longest completion	70	84%	10.6	+1.3
Longest rush	64	77%	6.3	+0.2

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	DET	100%	2	12	321	3
2026 wk 2	GB	100%	5	17	247	1
2026 wk 1	TEN	100%	6	7	215	0
2025 wk 17	NYG	90%	1	1	176	1
2025 wk 16	HOU	100%	0	0	201	2
2025 wk 14	DEN	74%	1	4	116	1
2025 wk 13	LAC	100%	2	-6	165	2
2025 wk 12	CLE	100%	3	8	285	1
2025 wk 11	DAL	100%	4	14	238	1
2025 wk 10	DEN	97%	3	7	143	0