Davante Adams

LA@

PHI

86% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 43.5
Implied team total: 23.3
Depth: #2
Recent snaps: 68%

33 yrs · 6′1″, 204 lb · Fresno State · 2014 rd 2 pk 53

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Rushing
Longest rush	6.7	0.0 – 17.7	–	Little to go on
Receiving
Receiving yards	46.3	15.4 – 102.8	–	Solid
Receptions	3.9	1.0 – 6.3	–	Solid
Longest reception	24.4	9.3 – 45.7	–	Solid
Rush + rec yards	46.4	11.1 – 106.4	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	25.4%	no range	+294	Solid
First TD scorer	5.4%	no range	+1743	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	Rec TD	Tgt share	WOPR	RZ tgt	Snap%	PPR
Last 3	3	9.7	6.0	119.3	0.67	27%	0.72	1.00	67%	21.9
Last 5	5	8.2	4.8	94.2	0.60	23%	0.59	1.00	68%	17.8
Last 10	10	8.2	4.6	76.3	0.70	23%	0.58	1.50	65%	16.4
2026 season	3	9.7	6.0	119.3	0.67	27%	0.72	1.00	67%	21.9

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	Rec TD	Tgt share	WOPR	RZ tgt	Snap%	PPR
2026	3	29	18	358	2	27%	2	2	67%	66
2025	14	114	60	789	14	25%	9	32	71%	223
2024	14	141	85	1,063	8	30%	10	27	92%	241
2023	17	175	103	1,144	8	33%	14	30	92%	265
2022	17	180	100	1,516	14	33%	13	23	95%	336
2021	16	169	123	1,553	11	32%	12	28	85%	344
2020	14	149	115	1,374	18	34%	11	28	85%	358
2019	12	127	83	997	5	31%	8	24	85%	213
2018	15	169	111	1,386	13	29%	10	32	93%	330
2017	14	117	74	885	10	25%	9	24	85%	222
2016	16	121	75	997	12	20%	8	25	84%	247
2015	13	94	50	483	1	19%	6	14	80%	106
2014	14	66	38	446	3	13%	4	11	73%	101

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

22 injury entries across 11 seasons · 13 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring

2025Hamstring×4KneeOblique

2024Hamstring×3HipWrist

2023IllnessShoulder

2022AbdomenIllness

2020Hamstring×2

2019Toe×5

2018CalfKneeShoulder

2017Concussion×3

2016AnkleConcussion

2015Ankle×6FootKnee

2014Heel

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Receptions	112	82%	2.2	-0.0
Receiving yards	112	75%	36.6	+4.4
Rush + rec yards	112	76%	37.1	+4.0
Anytime TD	112	38% vs 52%	0.5	-0.0
Longest reception	112	79%	11.1	+1.1
First TD scorer	112	10% vs 19%	0.2	+0.0
Longest rush	3	33%	7.4	-2.9

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	TD
2026 wk 3	DEN	83%	13	7	137	0
2026 wk 2	NYG	65%	10	8	195	2
2026 wk 1	SF	54%	6	3	26	0
2025 wk 21	SEA	61%	6	4	89	1
2025 wk 20	CHI	78%	6	2	24	0
2025 wk 19	CAR	72%	13	5	72	0
2025 wk 15	DET	46%	9	4	71	0
2025 wk 14	ARI	43%	6	4	29	0
2025 wk 13	CAR	75%	5	4	58	2
2025 wk 12	TB	77%	8	5	62	2