Sterling Shepard
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 20.0
- Depth
- #6
- Recent snaps
- 51%
33 yrs · 5′10″, 194 lb · Oklahoma · 2016 rd 2 pk 40
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.0 | 0.0 – 15.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 16.5 | 0.0 – 46.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.6 | 0.0 – 3.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 15.6 | 3.4 – 29.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 13.3 | 0.0 – 43.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 7.6% | no range | +1223 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.0% | no range | +4895 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 5% | 0.13 | 1.00 | 43% | 2.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 15.8 | 0.00 | 10% | 0.23 | 1.00 | 51% | 4.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 20.7 | 0.10 | 11% | 0.24 | 1.14 | 51% | 5.5 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 3% | 0.05 | 1.00 | 45% | 3.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 45% | 3 |
| 2025 | 13 | 53 | 39 | 371 | 1 | 13% | 4 | 8 | 56% | 82 |
| 2024 | 13 | 51 | 32 | 334 | 1 | 12% | 4 | 7 | 57% | 80 |
| 2023 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 57 | 1 | 8% | 2 | 7 | 21% | 22 |
| 2022 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 154 | 1 | 27% | 2 | 1 | 80% | 34 |
| 2021 | 7 | 53 | 36 | 366 | 1 | 21% | 3 | 9 | 73% | 78 |
| 2020 | 12 | 90 | 66 | 656 | 3 | 24% | 6 | 13 | 72% | 162 |
| 2019 | 10 | 83 | 57 | 576 | 3 | 24% | 5 | 12 | 91% | 142 |
| 2018 | 16 | 107 | 66 | 872 | 4 | 19% | 7 | 20 | 91% | 183 |
| 2017 | 11 | 84 | 59 | 731 | 2 | 18% | 5 | 11 | 90% | 145 |
| 2016 | 16 | 105 | 65 | 683 | 8 | 17% | 6 | 13 | 95% | 184 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
10 injury entries across 4 seasons · 14 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 68 | 84% | 1.7 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 68 | 81% | 21.6 | +0.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 68 | 79% | 22.6 | +1.6 |
| Anytime TD | 68 | 20% vs 16% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 68 | 5% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 66 | 83% | 7.8 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 20 | 50% | 8.4 | +3.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  DET | 45% | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  NO | 57% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  ARI | 26% | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  LA | 59% | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  BUF | 66% | 5 | 4 | 54 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  NE | 65% | 4 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 | NO | 41% | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 | DET | 64% | 7 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 6 |  SF | 49% | 3 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 |  SEA | 41% | 5 | 4 | 24 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 1 |