Derrick Henry

BALvs

TEN

98% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 42.5
Implied team total: 27.0
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 62%

32 yrs · 6′3″, 252 lb · Alabama · 2016 rd 2 pk 45

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Rushing
Rushing yards	105.1	29.6 – 154.9	–	Solid
Rush attempts	21.0	1.0 – 26.5	–	Solid
Longest rush	37.2	8.0 – 57.8	–	Solid
Receiving
Receiving yards	10.1	0.0 – 34.4	–	Solid
Receptions	1.5	0.0 – 3.2	–	Solid
Longest reception	11.6	1.4 – 27.3	–	Solid
Rush + rec yards	115.2	37.6 – 165.9	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	52.0%	no range	-108	Solid
First TD scorer	13.9%	no range	+619	Likely too high

Form

Window	GP	Car	Rush yd	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	RZ tch	Snap%	PPR
Last 3	3	22.0	100.3	2.00	1.7	1.7	12.7	6.67	58%	25.0
Last 5	5	24.4	128.6	2.00	1.2	1.0	7.6	8.25	62%	26.6
Last 10	10	20.7	108.9	1.50	1.1	0.9	11.4	6.63	54%	21.7
2026 season	3	22.0	100.3	2.00	1.7	1.7	12.7	6.67	58%	25.0

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Car	Rush yd	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	RZ tch	Snap%	PPR
2026	3	66	301	6	5	5	38	20	58%	75
2025	17	307	1,595	16	21	15	150	65	55%	280
2024	17	325	1,921	16	22	19	193	61	57%	336
2023	17	280	1,167	12	36	28	214	39	54%	247
2022	16	349	1,538	13	41	33	398	46	67%	303
2021	8	219	937	10	20	18	154	37	72%	193
2020	16	378	2,027	17	31	19	114	67	66%	333
2019	15	303	1,540	16	24	18	206	46	64%	295
2018	16	215	1,059	12	18	15	99	45	41%	201
2017	16	176	744	5	17	11	136	30	40%	135
2016	14	110	490	5	15	13	137	25	29%	106

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring

2022Hip

2019Hamstring×2

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Rushing yards	113	71%	43.4	+2.4
Receptions	113	95%	1.0	+0.0
Receiving yards	113	88%	12.4	+1.3
Rush attempts	113	72%	5.1	+0.2
Rush + rec yards	113	63%	48.0	-0.2
Anytime TD	113	50% vs 63%	0.5	-0.0
First TD scorer	113	13% vs 19%	0.3	+0.0
Longest rush	113	75%	14.2	+2.2
Longest reception	82	78%	8.9	+1.9

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	Car	RushYd	TD
2026 wk 3	DAL	67%	1	1	0	26	89	2
2026 wk 2	NO	53%	3	3	19	16	68	1
2026 wk 1	IND	54%	1	1	19	24	144	3
2025 wk 18	PIT	71%	1	0	0	20	126	0
2025 wk 17	GB	63%	0	0	0	36	216	4
2025 wk 16	NE	44%	0	0	0	18	128	2
2025 wk 15	CIN	37%	0	0	0	11	100	0
2025 wk 14	PIT	54%	2	1	8	25	94	0
2025 wk 13	CIN	40%	1	1	44	10	60	1
2025 wk 12	NYJ	56%	2	2	24	21	64	2