Tyler Higbee
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 23.3
- Depth
- #4
- Recent snaps
- 34%
33 yrs · 6′6″, 253 lb · Western Kentucky · 2016 rd 4 pk 110
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 21.1 | 0.0 – 50.1 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 0.0 – 4.7 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.7 | 4.9 – 28.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 22.8 | 3.0 – 53.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 15.1% | no range | +561 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.2% | no range | +3059 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 28.7 | 0.33 | 11% | 0.21 | 2.00 | 37% | 7.9 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 31.6 | 0.20 | 9% | 0.18 | 1.33 | 34% | 6.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 33.7 | 0.30 | 11% | 0.22 | 1.29 | 42% | 7.9 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 37.0 | 0.50 | 15% | 0.29 | 2.00 | 45% | 10.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 74 | 1 | 15% | 1 | 2 | 45% | 21 |
| 2025 | 10 | 36 | 25 | 281 | 3 | 11% | 2 | 8 | 55% | 71 |
| 2024 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 66 | 2 | 13% | 1 | 6 | 33% | 27 |
| 2023 | 15 | 70 | 47 | 495 | 2 | 14% | 4 | 5 | 87% | 109 |
| 2022 | 16 | 108 | 72 | 620 | 3 | 22% | 6 | 16 | 88% | 152 |
| 2021 | 15 | 85 | 61 | 560 | 5 | 16% | 5 | 20 | 92% | 147 |
| 2020 | 15 | 60 | 44 | 521 | 5 | 12% | 4 | 7 | 78% | 128 |
| 2019 | 14 | 89 | 69 | 734 | 3 | 16% | 5 | 19 | 66% | 160 |
| 2018 | 14 | 34 | 24 | 292 | 2 | 7% | 2 | 6 | 70% | 65 |
| 2017 | 14 | 45 | 25 | 295 | 1 | 10% | 3 | 5 | 75% | 61 |
| 2016 | 12 | 29 | 11 | 85 | 1 | 7% | 2 | 4 | 43% | 26 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
14 injury entries across 7 seasons · 7 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 99 | 82% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 99 | 76% | 22.4 | +0.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 99 | 73% | 21.7 | +1.2 |
| Anytime TD | 99 | 23% vs 19% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 99 | 5% vs 7% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 94 | 84% | 7.3 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  DEN | 71% | 11 | 8 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  SF | 20% | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  SEA | 20% | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  CHI | 10% | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  CAR | 51% | 3 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  ARI | 64% | 6 | 5 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 | SEA | 39% | 2 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 | SF | 54% | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  NO | 52% | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 7 |  JAX | 37% | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |