Aaron Jones

MINvs

MIA

91% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 38.5
Implied team total: 24.5
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 67%

31 yrs · 5′9″, 208 lb · Texas-El Paso · 2017 rd 5 pk 182

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Rushing
Rushing yards	70.0	22.5 – 107.1	–	Solid
Rush attempts	15.7	1.0 – 21.4	–	Solid
Longest rush	19.3	5.8 – 34.5	–	Solid
Receiving
Receiving yards	17.5	0.0 – 43.6	–	Solid
Receptions	2.4	0.0 – 4.5	–	Solid
Longest reception	12.7	2.2 – 26.8	–	Solid
Rush + rec yards	87.5	30.7 – 135.2	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	41.1%	no range	+143	Solid
First TD scorer	14.1%	no range	+610	Likely too high

Form

Window	GP	Car	Rush yd	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	RZ tch	Snap%	PPR
Last 3	3	17.3	67.7	0.33	2.3	1.7	11.3	4.00	69%	11.6
Last 5	5	18.2	68.2	0.40	2.8	2.0	10.4	4.67	67%	12.3
Last 10	10	14.8	56.5	0.20	3.2	2.3	13.2	2.86	61%	10.3
2026 season	3	17.3	67.7	0.33	2.3	1.7	11.3	4.00	69%	11.6

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Car	Rush yd	Rush TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yd	RZ tch	Snap%	PPR
2026	3	52	203	1	7	5	34	4	69%	35
2025	12	132	548	2	41	28	199	19	55%	119
2024	17	255	1,138	5	62	51	408	62	63%	242
2023	11	142	656	2	43	30	233	46	49%	135
2022	17	213	1,121	2	72	59	395	42	58%	249
2021	15	171	799	4	65	52	391	48	59%	229
2020	14	201	1,104	9	63	47	355	50	60%	259
2019	16	236	1,084	16	68	49	474	46	61%	315
2018	12	133	728	8	35	26	206	21	50%	171
2017	10	81	448	4	18	9	22	14	39%	80

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

8 injury entries across 5 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee

2025HamstringHipShoulder

2023Hamstring×5Knee×4

2021Knee×3

2020Calf×3

2017Knee×4

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Rushing yards	110	73%	29.9	+2.7
Receptions	110	83%	1.5	+0.1
Receiving yards	110	80%	16.9	+1.2
Rush attempts	110	87%	4.1	+0.2
Rush + rec yards	110	66%	35.6	+3.3
Anytime TD	110	45% vs 42%	0.5	-0.0
First TD scorer	110	12% vs 13%	0.2	+0.0
Longest rush	110	80%	10.2	+1.0
Longest reception	103	82%	7.3	+1.2

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	Car	RushYd	TD
2026 wk 3	TB	80%	6	5	34	17	58	0
2026 wk 2	CHI	81%	0	0	0	23	105	0
2026 wk 1	GB	46%	1	0	0	12	40	1
2025 wk 17	DET	65%	4	3	10	18	53	1
2025 wk 16	NYG	64%	3	2	8	21	85	0
2025 wk 15	DAL	58%	3	3	31	12	34	0
2025 wk 14	WAS	45%	1	0	0	14	76	0
2025 wk 13	SEA	37%	4	4	22	6	3	0
2025 wk 12	GB	66%	4	3	16	9	41	0
2025 wk 11	CHI	67%	6	3	11	16	70	0