Mack Hollins
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 70%
33 yrs · 6′4″, 221 lb · North Carolina · 2017 rd 4 pk 118
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.1 | 0.0 – 15.6 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 33.9 | 7.8 – 82.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.3 | 1.0 – 5.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 19.7 | 7.8 – 39.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 41.9 | 6.7 – 88.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 16.2% | no range | +517 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.5% | no range | +1717 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 52.0 | 0.00 | 19% | 0.44 | 2.00 | 72% | 9.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 57.0 | 0.20 | 17% | 0.42 | 1.67 | 70% | 10.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 51.2 | 0.10 | 19% | 0.48 | 1.67 | 74% | 9.5 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 52.0 | 0.00 | 19% | 0.44 | 2.00 | 72% | 9.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 156 | 0 | 19% | 1 | 4 | 72% | 28 |
| 2025 | 14 | 65 | 46 | 550 | 2 | 16% | 5 | 5 | 68% | 113 |
| 2024 | 17 | 50 | 31 | 378 | 5 | 10% | 4 | 7 | 67% | 99 |
| 2023 | 12 | 30 | 18 | 251 | 0 | 8% | 3 | 2 | 41% | 43 |
| 2022 | 17 | 94 | 57 | 690 | 4 | 17% | 7 | 12 | 93% | 154 |
| 2021 | 15 | 28 | 14 | 223 | 4 | 5% | 2 | 9 | 30% | 60 |
| 2020 | 11 | 25 | 16 | 176 | 1 | 6% | 2 | 3 | 36% | 38 |
| 2019 | 12 | 23 | 10 | 125 | 0 | 5% | 1 | 5 | 42% | 23 |
| 2017 | 12 | 22 | 16 | 226 | 1 | 5% | 2 | – | 29% | 45 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 4 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 103 | 86% | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 103 | 86% | 21.0 | -0.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 103 | 87% | 20.2 | +0.4 |
| Anytime TD | 103 | 16% vs 17% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 100 | 3% vs 2% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 76 | 80% | 9.1 | +0.6 |
| Longest rush | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | +11.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  JAX | 76% | 9 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  PIT | 71% | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  SEA | 70% | 5 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 22 | SEA | 72% | 8 | 4 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  DEN | 61% | 2 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  BAL | 66% | 9 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  BUF | 79% | 8 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NYG | 75% | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  CIN | 86% | 6 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  NYJ | 85% | 5 | 4 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |