Patrick Mahomes

65% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 47.5
Implied team total: 26.0
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 98%

31 yrs · 6′2″, 225 lb · Texas Tech · 2017 rd 1 pk 10

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	267.6	147.7 – 333.8	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.8	0.0 – 3.1	–	Solid
Completions	22.5	14.1 – 30.2	–	Solid
Pass attempts	33.9	21.3 – 44.9	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.7	0.0 – 2.2	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	286.6	183.0 – 359.3	–	Solid
Longest completion	42.0	21.0 – 57.7	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	19.0	0.0 – 43.4	–	Solid
Rush attempts	3.5	1.0 – 6.9	–	Solid
Longest rush	10.2	2.2 – 19.4	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	16.0%	no range	+525	Solid
First TD scorer	4.6%	no range	+2088	Differs from form

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	32.7	22.3	270.7	2.33	0.67	3.3	13.7	1.33	22.2
Last 5	5	31.8	19.4	232.2	1.40	1.20	3.8	23.0	2.20	17.2
Last 10	10	35.2	21.8	259.9	1.50	1.10	3.2	21.3	2.70	17.9
2026 season	3	32.7	22.3	270.7	2.33	0.67	3.3	13.7	1.33	22.2

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	98	67	812	7	2	10	41	4	67
2025	14	502	315	3,587	22	11	64	422	34	286
2024	16	581	392	3,928	26	11	58	307	36	283
2023	16	597	401	4,183	27	14	75	389	27	280
2022	17	648	435	5,250	41	12	61	358	26	417
2021	17	658	436	4,839	37	13	66	381	28	362
2020	15	588	390	4,740	38	6	62	308	22	374
2019	14	484	319	4,031	26	5	43	218	17	287
2018	16	580	383	5,097	50	12	60	272	26	417
2017	1	35	22	284	0	1	7	10	–	10

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle

2024Ankle

2023Ankle

2019Knee×2

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	128	86%	56.6	+6.3
Passing TDs	128	86%	1.0	+0.1
Completions	128	87%	4.6	+0.5
Rushing yards	128	74%	15.5	+0.8
Pass attempts	128	84%	6.0	+0.7
Interceptions	128	89%	0.7	-0.0
Pass + rush yards	128	81%	57.1	+6.5
Rush attempts	128	83%	2.1	+0.1
Anytime TD	128	18% vs 17%	0.3	-0.0
First TD scorer	128	3% vs 6%	0.1	+0.0
Longest completion	128	85%	9.9	+1.0
Longest rush	113	79%	5.9	+0.4

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	MIA	100%	0	0	0	1	1	246	2
2026 wk 2	IND	100%	0	0	0	2	17	382	3
2026 wk 1	DEN	100%	0	0	0	7	23	184	3
2025 wk 15	LAC	92%	0	0	0	2	15	189	1
2025 wk 14	HOU	100%	1	1	-10	7	59	160	0
2025 wk 13	DAL	100%	0	0	0	3	30	261	4
2025 wk 12	IND	100%	0	0	0	4	30	352	0
2025 wk 11	DEN	100%	0	0	0	1	3	276	1
2025 wk 9	BUF	100%	0	0	0	1	5	250	0
2025 wk 8	WAS	100%	0	0	0	4	30	299	3