Alvin Kamara
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 39%
31 yrs · 5′10″, 215 lb · Tennessee; Hutchinson CC; Alabama · 2017 rd 3 pk 67
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 33.2 | 4.1 – 67.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 8.5 | 1.0 – 15.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 11.7 | 3.8 – 21.9 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 14.0 | 0.0 – 37.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 0.0 – 4.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 11.2 | 2.4 – 22.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 47.2 | 5.2 – 89.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 24.9% | no range | +301 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.8% | no range | +1623 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.0 | 20.7 | 0.00 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 1.50 | 25% | 5.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.8 | 31.8 | 0.00 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 10.2 | 1.67 | 39% | 6.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.9 | 33.6 | 0.00 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 15.1 | 2.43 | 52% | 7.7 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 9.0 | 25.5 | 0.00 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1.50 | 31% | 6.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 18 | 51 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 31% | 12 |
| 2025 | 11 | 131 | 471 | 1 | 39 | 33 | 186 | 20 | 64% | 101 |
| 2024 | 14 | 228 | 950 | 6 | 89 | 68 | 543 | 41 | 71% | 265 |
| 2023 | 13 | 180 | 694 | 5 | 86 | 75 | 466 | 49 | 62% | 233 |
| 2022 | 15 | 223 | 897 | 2 | 77 | 57 | 490 | 36 | 70% | 212 |
| 2021 | 13 | 240 | 898 | 4 | 67 | 47 | 439 | 56 | 76% | 235 |
| 2020 | 15 | 187 | 932 | 16 | 107 | 83 | 756 | 62 | 65% | 378 |
| 2019 | 14 | 171 | 797 | 5 | 97 | 81 | 533 | 40 | 69% | 249 |
| 2018 | 15 | 194 | 883 | 14 | 105 | 81 | 709 | 80 | 66% | 354 |
| 2017 | 16 | 120 | 728 | 8 | 100 | 81 | 826 | 43 | 45% | 320 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
11 injury entries across 7 seasons · 13 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 98 | 77% | 25.4 | +2.2 |
| Receptions | 98 | 79% | 2.1 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 98 | 74% | 21.8 | +1.7 |
| Rush attempts | 98 | 83% | 4.6 | +0.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 98 | 76% | 34.3 | +3.5 |
| Anytime TD | 98 | 44% vs 37% | 0.5 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 98 | 13% vs 13% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 98 | 82% | 6.7 | -0.2 |
| Longest reception | 96 | 76% | 8.8 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
