Justice Hill
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 36%
28 yrs · 5′10″, 195 lb · Oklahoma State · 2019 rd 4 pk 113
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 20.5 | 0.0 – 43.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.0 | 0.0 – 8.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 9.2 | 2.1 – 19.8 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 8.3 | 0.0 – 23.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.2 | 0.0 – 3.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.1 | 2.0 – 23.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 28.8 | 3.6 – 71.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 14.2% | no range | +606 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.4% | no range | +2875 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.3 | 19.0 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.3 | – | 42% | 3.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.8 | 11.6 | 0.20 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 1.00 | 36% | 3.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.6 | 15.7 | 0.20 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 1.50 | 36% | 6.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.3 | 19.0 | 0.00 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.3 | – | 42% | 3.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 22 | – | 42% | 11 |
| 2025 | 10 | 18 | 93 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 169 | 4 | 37% | 65 |
| 2024 | 15 | 47 | 228 | 1 | 51 | 42 | 383 | 14 | 42% | 127 |
| 2023 | 16 | 84 | 387 | 3 | 39 | 28 | 206 | 26 | 41% | 109 |
| 2022 | 15 | 49 | 262 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 58 | 4 | 27% | 42 |
| 2020 | 11 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 11% | 13 |
| 2019 | 16 | 58 | 225 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 70 | 13 | 17% | 49 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
6 injury entries across 5 seasons · 8 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often foot
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 90 | 87% | 13.8 | +1.1 |
| Receptions | 90 | 90% | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 90 | 93% | 11.2 | -0.1 |
| Rush attempts | 90 | 91% | 2.4 | +0.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 90 | 87% | 18.8 | +0.6 |
| Anytime TD | 90 | 17% vs 13% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 88 | 3% vs 2% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 71 | 76% | 7.3 | +1.6 |
| Longest reception | 54 | 85% | 5.7 | +0.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
