Kyler Murray
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 83%
29 yrs · 5′10″, 207 lb · Oklahoma; Texas A&M · 2019 rd 1 pk 1
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 215.2 | 60.3 – 296.6 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.2 | 0.0 – 3.0 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 18.5 | 6.0 – 27.7 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 27.7 | 6.2 – 42.2 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.3 | 0.0 – 2.1 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 231.0 | 79.5 – 314.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 39.1 | 18.1 – 56.6 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 15.8 | 0.0 – 39.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 3.2 | 1.0 – 8.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 10.5 | 1.8 – 20.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 13.7% | no range | +632 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.4% | no range | +2152 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 21.7 | 13.7 | 135.3 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 2.7 | 17.0 | 2.00 | 8.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 28.2 | 18.0 | 153.0 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 3.8 | 25.8 | 2.60 | 11.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 31.0 | 20.6 | 191.3 | 1.30 | 0.80 | 4.8 | 31.6 | 2.60 | 15.2 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 17.0 | 9.0 | 93.0 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 1.50 | 5.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 186 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 3 | 10 |
| 2025 | 5 | 161 | 110 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 173 | 16 | 78 |
| 2024 | 17 | 541 | 372 | 3,851 | 21 | 11 | 78 | 572 | 30 | 297 |
| 2023 | 8 | 268 | 176 | 1,799 | 10 | 5 | 44 | 244 | 18 | 146 |
| 2022 | 11 | 390 | 259 | 2,368 | 14 | 7 | 67 | 418 | 25 | 201 |
| 2021 | 14 | 481 | 333 | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 88 | 423 | 31 | 300 |
| 2020 | 16 | 558 | 375 | 3,971 | 26 | 12 | 133 | 819 | 27 | 379 |
| 2019 | 16 | 542 | 349 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 93 | 544 | 48 | 285 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
8 injury entries across 6 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 88 | 80% | 57.6 | +1.2 |
| Passing TDs | 88 | 93% | 0.9 | +0.0 |
| Completions | 88 | 84% | 4.7 | +0.2 |
| Rushing yards | 88 | 69% | 21.5 | -0.2 |
| Pass attempts | 88 | 84% | 6.9 | +0.4 |
| Interceptions | 88 | 93% | 0.7 | +0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 88 | 84% | 57.8 | +5.8 |
| Rush attempts | 88 | 89% | 2.3 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 88 | 26% vs 32% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 88 | 6% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 88 | 75% | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| Longest completion | 88 | 88% | 10.9 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
