T.J. Hockenson
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 75%
29 yrs · 6′5″, 248 lb · Iowa · 2019 rd 1 pk 8
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 31.2 | 5.8 – 68.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.3 | 1.0 – 5.7 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 21.4 | 5.2 – 32.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.8 | 4.4 – 73.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 18.6% | no range | +439 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.5% | no range | +2106 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 25.3 | 0.33 | 20% | 0.40 | 2.00 | 73% | 7.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 28.8 | 0.20 | 17% | 0.35 | 1.50 | 75% | 6.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 28.1 | 0.20 | 16% | 0.33 | 1.00 | 75% | 7.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 25.3 | 0.33 | 20% | 0.40 | 2.00 | 73% | 7.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 20% | 1 | 2 | 73% | 23 |
| 2025 | 15 | 66 | 51 | 438 | 3 | 16% | 5 | 11 | 78% | 113 |
| 2024 | 10 | 62 | 41 | 455 | 0 | 18% | 4 | 9 | 62% | 87 |
| 2023 | 15 | 127 | 95 | 960 | 5 | 24% | 8 | 14 | 79% | 219 |
| 2022 | 17 | 129 | 86 | 914 | 6 | 20% | 7 | 22 | 84% | 217 |
| 2021 | 12 | 84 | 61 | 583 | 4 | 21% | 6 | 12 | 84% | 145 |
| 2020 | 16 | 101 | 67 | 723 | 6 | 18% | 6 | 18 | 73% | 175 |
| 2019 | 12 | 59 | 32 | 367 | 2 | 14% | 3 | 7 | 63% | 81 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
9 injury entries across 7 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 99 | 79% | 2.1 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 99 | 76% | 25.6 | +1.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 99 | 74% | 24.7 | +2.3 |
| Anytime TD | 99 | 27% vs 24% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 99 | 6% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 97 | 81% | 8.1 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  TB | 85% | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CHI | 69% | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  GB | 66% | 5 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NYG | 75% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DAL | 80% | 5 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  WAS | 56% | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  SEA | 79% | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | GB | 68% | 4 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | CHI | 80% | 6 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  BAL | 91% | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |