Ty Johnson
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 30%
29 yrs · 5′10″, 210 lb · Maryland · 2019 rd 6 pk 186
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 11.6 | 0.0 – 29.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 3.1 | 0.0 – 6.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 9.9 | 1.2 – 19.1 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 19.5 | 0.0 – 37.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.1 | 0.0 – 4.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 12.9 | 3.4 – 25.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.1 | 6.1 – 94.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 16.7% | no range | +498 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.8% | no range | +3416 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.0 | 17.0 | 0.33 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 34.3 | 5.00 | 31% | 12.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 0.40 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 23.6 | 3.75 | 30% | 10.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.3 | 12.8 | 0.20 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 28.2 | 2.57 | 31% | 8.9 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 50.0 | – | 23% | 9.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 50 | – | 23% | 9 |
| 2025 | 17 | 50 | 200 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 263 | 23 | 30% | 100 |
| 2024 | 17 | 41 | 213 | 1 | 25 | 18 | 284 | 15 | 29% | 92 |
| 2023 | 9 | 30 | 132 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 7 | 14% | 32 |
| 2022 | 12 | 30 | 160 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 88 | 2 | 23% | 43 |
| 2021 | 15 | 61 | 238 | 2 | 55 | 34 | 372 | 16 | 42% | 117 |
| 2020 | 11 | 54 | 254 | 1 | 21 | 16 | 99 | 11 | 26% | 63 |
| 2019 | 16 | 63 | 273 | 0 | 31 | 24 | 109 | 8 | 29% | 60 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 102 | 84% | 13.0 | +1.2 |
| Receptions | 102 | 90% | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 102 | 86% | 13.3 | +1.1 |
| Rush attempts | 102 | 92% | 2.6 | -0.0 |
| Rush + rec yards | 102 | 81% | 20.4 | +1.4 |
| Anytime TD | 102 | 14% vs 17% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 98 | 3% vs 1% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 89 | 83% | 5.6 | +0.3 |
| Longest reception | 64 | 77% | 7.5 | +1.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LAC | 23% | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYJ | 33% | 2 | 2 | 20 | 13 | 36 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  PHI | 38% | 4 | 3 | 33 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CLE | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NE | 26% | 3 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CIN | 25% | 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  PIT | 27% | 5 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  HOU | 35% | 3 | 3 | 45 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  TB | 32% | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  MIA | 40% | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |