DK Metcalf
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 92%
28 yrs · 6′4″, 235 lb · Mississippi · 2019 rd 2 pk 64
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Line | Price | P(over) | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | |||||||
| Longest rush | 5.9 | 0.0 – 14.9 | – | – | – | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | |||||||
| Receiving yards | 49.7 | 11.5 – 99.1 | 46.5 | -113 / -111DK | 46% | +2.4%under | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.2 | 1.0 – 6.5 | 3.5 | -138 / +108DK | 47% | +10.9%under | Solid |
| Longest reception | 23.0 | 8.4 – 39.0 | 19.5 | -111 / -116DK | 52% | no bet | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 53.1 | 9.9 – 102.0 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | |||||||
| Anytime TD | 23.2% | no range | yes | +240 / –DK | – | no bet | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.8% | no range | yes | +1000 / –DK | – | no bet | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 32.7 | 0.33 | 22% | 0.56 | 1.00 | 96% | 8.9 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 36.4 | 0.20 | 21% | 0.53 | 1.00 | 92% | 8.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 48.8 | 0.20 | 23% | 0.61 | 1.67 | 88% | 10.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 32.7 | 0.33 | 22% | 0.56 | 1.00 | 96% | 8.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 24 | 11 | 98 | 1 | 22% | 2 | 1 | 96% | 27 |
| 2025 | 15 | 99 | 59 | 850 | 6 | 22% | 9 | 13 | 87% | 187 |
| 2024 | 15 | 108 | 66 | 992 | 5 | 21% | 9 | 10 | 86% | 191 |
| 2023 | 16 | 119 | 66 | 1,114 | 8 | 23% | 10 | 23 | 84% | 225 |
| 2022 | 17 | 141 | 90 | 1,048 | 6 | 25% | 11 | 29 | 82% | 227 |
| 2021 | 17 | 129 | 75 | 967 | 12 | 28% | 11 | 20 | 84% | 244 |
| 2020 | 16 | 129 | 83 | 1,303 | 10 | 25% | 10 | 16 | 92% | 271 |
| 2019 | 16 | 100 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 20% | 8 | 20 | 84% | 187 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 117 | 89% | 1.8 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 117 | 78% | 30.8 | +0.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 117 | 80% | 30.1 | +1.1 |
| Anytime TD | 117 | 33% vs 42% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 117 | 7% vs 10% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 116 | 73% | 12.4 | +1.5 |
| Longest rush | 4 | 100% | 2.0 | +1.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 95% | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NE | 97% | 9 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ATL | 96% | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  HOU | 86% | 5 | 2 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  DET | 88% | 9 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  MIA | 79% | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  BAL | 83% | 12 | 7 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  BUF | 86% | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  CHI | 85% | 8 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 11 | CIN | 86% | 8 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |