David Montgomery
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 25.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 48%
29 yrs · 5′11″, 230 lb · Iowa State · 2019 rd 3 pk 73
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 41.1 | 8.3 – 80.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 9.2 | 1.0 – 17.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 12.2 | 4.3 – 23.5 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 10.5 | 0.0 – 28.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.7 | 0.0 – 3.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 11.1 | 2.5 – 24.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 51.6 | 10.7 – 99.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 35.8% | no range | +180 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 9.1% | no range | +1003 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 12.3 | 34.3 | 0.67 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 16.0 | 2.67 | 55% | 13.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 0.40 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 2.60 | 48% | 10.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.5 | 32.6 | 0.50 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 12.4 | 2.33 | 39% | 9.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 12.3 | 34.3 | 0.67 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 16.0 | 2.67 | 55% | 13.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 37 | 103 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 48 | 8 | 55% | 40 |
| 2025 | 17 | 158 | 716 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 192 | 37 | 37% | 167 |
| 2024 | 14 | 185 | 775 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 341 | 53 | 42% | 222 |
| 2023 | 14 | 219 | 1,015 | 13 | 24 | 16 | 117 | 54 | 48% | 207 |
| 2022 | 16 | 201 | 801 | 5 | 40 | 34 | 316 | 37 | 65% | 178 |
| 2021 | 13 | 225 | 849 | 7 | 51 | 42 | 301 | 51 | 75% | 195 |
| 2020 | 15 | 247 | 1,070 | 8 | 68 | 54 | 438 | 59 | 75% | 265 |
| 2019 | 16 | 242 | 889 | 6 | 35 | 25 | 185 | 35 | 58% | 170 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
10 injury entries across 7 seasons · 9 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 110 | 82% | 24.2 | +2.0 |
| Receptions | 110 | 90% | 1.3 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 110 | 89% | 12.1 | +0.8 |
| Rush attempts | 110 | 88% | 4.2 | +0.2 |
| Rush + rec yards | 110 | 78% | 27.0 | +0.2 |
| Anytime TD | 110 | 40% vs 49% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 110 | 10% vs 17% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| Longest rush | 110 | 81% | 8.4 | +1.0 |
| Longest reception | 93 | 85% | 5.2 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  IND | 63% | 2 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CIN | 52% | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  BUF | 49% | 3 | 3 | 19 | 20 | 60 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CHI | 42% | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  MIN | 34% | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  PIT | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LA | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  DAL | 31% | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  GB | 38% | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NYG | 34% | 3 | 3 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |