Michael Pittman
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 86%
28 yrs · 6′4″, 223 lb · USC · 2020 rd 2 pk 34
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.0 | 0.0 – 14.7 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 23.4 | 5.5 – 64.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.9 | 1.0 – 5.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.7 | 5.6 – 31.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 29.3 | 4.1 – 70.1 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 15.7% | no range | +538 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.3% | no range | +2209 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 28.3 | 0.00 | 12% | 0.25 | 2.00 | 83% | 5.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 26.6 | 0.00 | 12% | 0.26 | 1.50 | 86% | 5.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 29.7 | 0.10 | 16% | 0.37 | 1.75 | 86% | 6.9 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 37.0 | 0.00 | 12% | 0.25 | – | 81% | 6.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12% | 0 | – | 81% | 12 |
| 2025 | 17 | 111 | 80 | 784 | 7 | 21% | 8 | 18 | 86% | 202 |
| 2024 | 16 | 111 | 69 | 808 | 3 | 25% | 9 | 14 | 88% | 166 |
| 2023 | 16 | 156 | 109 | 1,152 | 4 | 30% | 11 | 22 | 92% | 252 |
| 2022 | 16 | 141 | 99 | 925 | 4 | 26% | 9 | 15 | 97% | 216 |
| 2021 | 17 | 129 | 88 | 1,082 | 6 | 26% | 11 | 18 | 88% | 239 |
| 2020 | 13 | 61 | 40 | 503 | 1 | 14% | 4 | 9 | 78% | 99 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
9 injury entries across 6 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often back
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 96 | 79% | 2.2 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 96 | 78% | 26.8 | -0.0 |
| Rush + rec yards | 96 | 80% | 27.8 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 96 | 30% vs 25% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 96 | 85% | 9.0 | +0.5 |
| First TD scorer | 96 | 7% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 10 | 70% | 7.6 | +2.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 73% | 5 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ATL | 88% | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  HOU | 89% | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  JAX | 86% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  SF | 93% | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  SEA | 93% | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | JAX | 87% | 12 | 9 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | HOU | 83% | 4 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  KC | 82% | 8 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 10 | ATL | 81% | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |