Justin Jefferson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 24.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 76%
27 yrs · 6′1″, 195 lb · LSU · 2020 rd 1 pk 22
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 5.6 | 0.0 – 17.6 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 53.9 | 11.0 – 100.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.8 | 1.0 – 7.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 24.1 | 7.9 – 36.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 51.7 | 10.0 – 107.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 32.6% | no range | +207 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 8.9% | no range | +1021 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 59.7 | 0.67 | 26% | 0.65 | 2.00 | 68% | 15.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 62.0 | 0.40 | 30% | 0.70 | 1.50 | 76% | 14.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 48.0 | 0.20 | 29% | 0.69 | 1.83 | 85% | 10.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 59.7 | 0.67 | 26% | 0.65 | 2.00 | 68% | 15.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 179 | 2 | 26% | 2 | 4 | 68% | 45 |
| 2025 | 17 | 141 | 84 | 1,048 | 2 | 31% | 13 | 19 | 94% | 202 |
| 2024 | 17 | 154 | 103 | 1,533 | 10 | 30% | 12 | 26 | 93% | 317 |
| 2023 | 10 | 100 | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | 28% | 7 | 11 | 87% | 202 |
| 2022 | 17 | 184 | 128 | 1,809 | 8 | 28% | 12 | 31 | 92% | 369 |
| 2021 | 17 | 167 | 108 | 1,616 | 10 | 29% | 13 | 25 | 89% | 330 |
| 2020 | 16 | 125 | 88 | 1,400 | 7 | 25% | 10 | 15 | 81% | 274 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 96 | 78% | 2.2 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 96 | 64% | 40.4 | +3.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 96 | 66% | 39.3 | +4.1 |
| Anytime TD | 96 | 36% vs 38% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 96 | 76% | 11.6 | +1.4 |
| First TD scorer | 96 | 8% vs 13% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 14 | 79% | 5.4 | -0.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  TB | 12% | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CHI | 100% | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  GB | 92% | 9 | 8 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 | GB | 76% | 11 | 8 | 101 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  DET | 98% | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NYG | 95% | 8 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DAL | 96% | 8 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  WAS | 80% | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  SEA | 96% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | GB | 100% | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |