Nico Collins
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 25.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 70%
27 yrs · 6′4″, 222 lb · Michigan · 2021 rd 3 pk 89
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 5.4 | 0.0 – 15.0 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 69.4 | 14.8 – 118.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.9 | 1.0 – 7.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 26.6 | 10.1 – 47.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 76.8 | 16.7 – 125.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 37.3% | no range | +168 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.0% | no range | +1572 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 51.0 | 0.33 | 21% | 0.51 | 2.00 | 65% | 11.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 59.4 | 0.60 | 21% | 0.54 | 2.00 | 70% | 13.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 79.9 | 0.40 | 24% | 0.59 | 2.33 | 75% | 16.1 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.00 | 27% | 0.67 | 2.00 | 72% | 21.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 27% | 1 | 2 | 72% | 21 |
| 2025 | 15 | 120 | 71 | 1,117 | 6 | 24% | 9 | 19 | 77% | 226 |
| 2024 | 12 | 99 | 68 | 1,006 | 7 | 25% | 7 | 13 | 66% | 211 |
| 2023 | 15 | 109 | 80 | 1,297 | 8 | 23% | 8 | 16 | 68% | 260 |
| 2022 | 10 | 66 | 37 | 481 | 2 | 19% | 5 | 8 | 72% | 97 |
| 2021 | 14 | 60 | 33 | 446 | 1 | 13% | 5 | 6 | 59% | 84 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
8 injury entries across 6 seasons · 9 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often foot
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 71 | 86% | 1.6 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 71 | 79% | 29.3 | +2.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 71 | 75% | 29.4 | +2.4 |
| Anytime TD | 71 | 26% vs 34% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 71 | 6% vs 14% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 70 | 80% | 10.7 | +1.9 |
| Longest rush | 4 | 100% | 2.6 | +0.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 1 |  BUF | 72% | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  PIT | 56% | 7 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  LAC | 68% | 4 | 3 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  LV | 80% | 9 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  ARI | 73% | 4 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  KC | 81% | 8 | 4 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  IND | 75% | 10 | 5 | 98 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 | BUF | 75% | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  TEN | 84% | 10 | 9 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  JAX | 89% | 15 | 7 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |