Noah Gray
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 26.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 55%
27 yrs · 6′3″, 240 lb · Duke · 2021 rd 5 pk 162
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 16.6 | 0.0 – 35.4 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.7 | 0.0 – 3.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 12.6 | 3.0 – 29.1 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 15.7 | 0.0 – 39.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 9.2% | no range | +985 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.5% | no range | +2738 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 14.7 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.15 | 1.00 | 56% | 2.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 15.2 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.17 | 1.00 | 55% | 3.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 12.4 | 0.00 | 7% | 0.15 | 1.00 | 49% | 2.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 14.7 | 0.00 | 6% | 0.15 | 1.00 | 56% | 2.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 56% | 8 |
| 2025 | 14 | 37 | 21 | 178 | 0 | 8% | 2 | 3 | 53% | 39 |
| 2024 | 16 | 49 | 40 | 437 | 5 | 9% | 3 | 10 | 56% | 113 |
| 2023 | 16 | 41 | 28 | 305 | 2 | 8% | 3 | 3 | 54% | 71 |
| 2022 | 17 | 34 | 28 | 299 | 1 | 6% | 2 | 4 | 52% | 70 |
| 2021 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 36 | 1 | 4% | 0 | 5 | 31% | 17 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 81 | 15% vs 10% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| Receptions | 81 | 94% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 81 | 94% | 11.1 | +1.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 81 | 94% | 10.9 | +1.3 |
| First TD scorer | 81 | 3% vs 1% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 73 | 74% | 6.6 | +0.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  MIA | 63% | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  IND | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DEN | 55% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LV | 56% | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | DEN | 49% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  TEN | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  HOU | 45% | 3 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | IND | 32% | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | DEN | 51% | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  BUF | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |