Pat Freiermuth
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 67%
27 yrs · 6′5″, 258 lb · Penn State · 2021 rd 2 pk 55
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Line | Price | P(over) | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | |||||||
| Receiving yards | 25.0 | 5.2 – 56.9 | 26.5 | -116 / -108DK | 46% | +4.1%under | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.8 | 0.0 – 4.9 | 3.5 | +128 / -164DK | 29% | +14.4%under | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.0 | 4.5 – 29.6 | 13.5 | -111 / -117DK | 54% | +3.5%over | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 34.8 | 3.8 – 66.1 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | |||||||
| Anytime TD | 15.2% | no range | yes | +400 / –DK | – | no bet | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.8% | no range | yes | +1500 / –DK | – | no bet | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 36.0 | 0.33 | 13% | 0.29 | 2.00 | 66% | 9.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 35.4 | 0.20 | 12% | 0.29 | 1.50 | 67% | 7.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 33.3 | 0.20 | 12% | 0.29 | 1.50 | 60% | 7.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 36.0 | 0.33 | 13% | 0.29 | 2.00 | 66% | 9.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 108 | 1 | 13% | 1 | 2 | 66% | 28 |
| 2025 | 15 | 54 | 41 | 486 | 4 | 11% | 4 | 9 | 53% | 114 |
| 2024 | 17 | 78 | 65 | 653 | 7 | 17% | 6 | 14 | 69% | 170 |
| 2023 | 11 | 47 | 32 | 308 | 2 | 15% | 3 | 7 | 64% | 77 |
| 2022 | 15 | 98 | 63 | 732 | 2 | 20% | 7 | 13 | 69% | 148 |
| 2021 | 16 | 79 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 13% | 4 | 21 | 62% | 152 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 78 | 83% | 1.4 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 78 | 77% | 20.2 | +1.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 78 | 79% | 19.4 | +1.9 |
| Anytime TD | 78 | 20% vs 26% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 78 | 5% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 77 | 86% | 7.4 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 60% | 4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NE | 66% | 5 | 4 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ATL | 73% | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  HOU | 68% | 3 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  BAL | 69% | 5 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CLE | 70% | 5 | 3 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  DET | 43% | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  MIA | 42% | 5 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | BAL | 60% | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  CHI | 47% | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |