Jaylen Warren
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 56%
27 yrs · 5′8″, 215 lb · Oklahoma State
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Line | Price | P(over) | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | |||||||
| Rushing yards | 65.4 | 19.7 – 111.5 | 76.5 | -112 / -112DK | 36% | +21.1%under | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 18.2 | 1.0 – 22.6 | 17.5 | -105 / -121DK | 50% | no bet | Solid |
| Longest rush | 17.2 | 6.4 – 34.9 | 15.5 | -109 / -118DK | 46% | no bet | Solid |
| Receiving | |||||||
| Receiving yards | 15.1 | 0.0 – 38.0 | 26.5 | -116 / -108DK | 28% | +39.2%under | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.6 | 1.0 – 5.9 | 3.5 | -121 / -105DK | 36% | +25.4%under | Solid |
| Longest reception | 12.3 | 2.1 – 25.9 | 11.5 | -121 / -107DK | 45% | +6.5%under | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 80.5 | 32.4 – 127.8 | 105.5 | -115 / -111FD | 27% | +39.1%under | Solid |
| Touchdowns | |||||||
| Anytime TD | 47.1% | no range | yes | +105 / –FD | – | no bet | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 11.4% | no range | yes | +460 / –FD | – | no bet | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 12.7 | 72.0 | 0.00 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 36.7 | 2.50 | 66% | 13.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 12.8 | 65.0 | 0.00 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 29.4 | 3.25 | 56% | 12.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.0 | 61.3 | 0.30 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 22.8 | 3.13 | 51% | 13.2 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 12.7 | 72.0 | 0.00 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 36.7 | 2.50 | 66% | 13.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 38 | 216 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 110 | 5 | 66% | 41 |
| 2025 | 16 | 211 | 958 | 6 | 45 | 40 | 333 | 45 | 51% | 217 |
| 2024 | 15 | 120 | 511 | 1 | 47 | 38 | 310 | 24 | 45% | 124 |
| 2023 | 17 | 149 | 784 | 4 | 74 | 61 | 370 | 24 | 49% | 196 |
| 2022 | 16 | 77 | 379 | 1 | 33 | 28 | 214 | 18 | 31% | 93 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 4 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 67 | 82% | 21.8 | +1.4 |
| Receptions | 67 | 94% | 1.2 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 67 | 84% | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| Rush attempts | 67 | 96% | 3.2 | -0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 67 | 79% | 29.6 | -0.3 |
| Anytime TD | 67 | 25% vs 18% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 67 | 6% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 66 | 82% | 7.1 | +1.2 |
| Longest reception | 62 | 81% | 6.5 | +1.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 90% | 4 | 3 | 49 | 17 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NE | 71% | 4 | 2 | 34 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ATL | 37% | 6 | 5 | 27 | 10 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  HOU | 46% | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  BAL | 37% | 5 | 5 | 33 | 14 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CLE | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  DET | 49% | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 143 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  MIA | 45% | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | BAL | 50% | 3 | 3 | 49 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  BUF | 56% | 4 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 1 |