Jalen Nailor
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 21.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 59%
27 yrs · 6′0″, 190 lb · Michigan State · 2022 rd 6 pk 191
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.9 | 0.0 – 14.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 24.5 | 0.0 – 61.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.9 | 0.0 – 3.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.6 | 4.6 – 32.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 22.4 | 0.0 – 64.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 11.3% | no range | +788 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.8% | no range | +3466 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 17.3 | 0.00 | 13% | 0.31 | 1.00 | 59% | 3.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 20.2 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.27 | 1.00 | 59% | 3.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 17.8 | 0.20 | 11% | 0.28 | 1.50 | 58% | 4.4 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 17.3 | 0.00 | 13% | 0.31 | 1.00 | 59% | 3.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 59% | 10 |
| 2025 | 17 | 53 | 29 | 444 | 4 | 12% | 5 | 13 | 65% | 101 |
| 2024 | 15 | 42 | 28 | 414 | 6 | 10% | 4 | 7 | 53% | 105 |
| 2023 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 6% | 0 | – | 39% | 6 |
| 2022 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 179 | 1 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 11% | 33 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 2 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 44 | 89% | 1.3 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 44 | 89% | 21.2 | +1.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 44 | 84% | 21.2 | +2.1 |
| Anytime TD | 44 | 14% vs 23% | 0.3 | +0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 40 | 3% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 33 | 82% | 9.2 | +2.4 |
| Longest rush | 5 | 60% | 8.2 | -2.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NO | 57% | 3 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  LAC | 60% | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  MIA | 60% | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  GB | 75% | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  DET | 43% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NYG | 62% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DAL | 51% | 5 | 3 | 47 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  WAS | 58% | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  SEA | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | GB | 45% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |