Garrett Wilson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 20.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 76%
26 yrs · 6′0″, 183 lb · Ohio State · 2022 rd 1 pk 10
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.0 | 0.0 – 15.5 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 66.4 | 16.0 – 104.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.9 | 1.0 – 7.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 23.0 | 9.5 – 39.7 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 61.2 | 14.1 – 113.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 26.6% | no range | +276 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.1% | no range | +1875 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 81.0 | 0.67 | 29% | 0.70 | 1.00 | 86% | 19.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 51.2 | 0.40 | 33% | 0.89 | 1.00 | 76% | 12.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 63.8 | 0.60 | 33% | 0.86 | 1.40 | 87% | 15.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 81.0 | 0.67 | 29% | 0.70 | 1.00 | 86% | 19.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 27 | 21 | 243 | 2 | 29% | 2 | 2 | 86% | 57 |
| 2025 | 7 | 59 | 36 | 395 | 4 | 35% | 6 | 5 | 87% | 99 |
| 2024 | 17 | 153 | 101 | 1,104 | 7 | 26% | 11 | 25 | 96% | 252 |
| 2023 | 17 | 168 | 95 | 1,042 | 3 | 30% | 13 | 19 | 91% | 213 |
| 2022 | 17 | 147 | 83 | 1,103 | 4 | 25% | 10 | 19 | 80% | 216 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 58 | 76% | 2.3 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 58 | 69% | 30.8 | -0.0 |
| Rush + rec yards | 58 | 76% | 30.7 | +0.2 |
| Anytime TD | 58 | 28% vs 26% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 58 | 8% vs 2% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| Longest reception | 57 | 81% | 10.2 | +0.6 |
| Longest rush | 10 | 60% | 5.9 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
