Malik Willis
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 14.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 89%
27 yrs · 6′1″, 225 lb · Liberty; Auburn · 2022 rd 3 pk 86
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 172.2 | 70.4 – 281.9 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.1 | 0.0 – 2.3 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 17.6 | 6.1 – 24.6 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 27.1 | 10.9 – 38.2 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.9 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 198.5 | 77.6 – 313.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 32.9 | 18.0 – 52.5 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 26.3 | 3.8 – 59.1 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.7 | 1.0 – 8.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 14.8 | 3.9 – 25.3 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 16.7% | no range | +499 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.1% | no range | +1536 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 28.7 | 16.3 | 209.0 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 5.7 | 33.7 | 3.00 | 13.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 23.6 | 15.2 | 207.2 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 7.2 | 41.0 | 2.40 | 16.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.1 | 9.4 | 127.5 | 0.50 | 0.20 | 4.7 | 24.8 | 1.60 | 10.4 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 28.7 | 16.3 | 209.0 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 5.7 | 33.7 | 3.00 | 13.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 86 | 49 | 627 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 101 | 9 | 39 |
| 2025 | 4 | 35 | 30 | 422 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 123 | 3 | 51 |
| 2024 | 6 | 54 | 40 | 550 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 138 | 8 | 52 |
| 2023 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 |
| 2022 | 7 | 61 | 31 | 276 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 123 | 10 | 19 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
1 injury entry across 1 season · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 19 | 84% | 77.4 | -11.6 |
| Passing TDs | 19 | 100% | 0.6 | -0.3 |
| Completions | 19 | 89% | 6.3 | -1.4 |
| Rushing yards | 19 | 58% | 19.3 | +1.8 |
| Pass attempts | 19 | 84% | 9.0 | -1.5 |
| Interceptions | 19 | 100% | 0.5 | -0.2 |
| Pass + rush yards | 19 | 68% | 97.9 | -14.2 |
| Rush attempts | 19 | 84% | 2.4 | +0.4 |
| Anytime TD | 19 | 10% vs 16% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 19 | 2% vs 5% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest rush | 18 | 67% | 7.6 | +0.3 |
| Longest completion | 16 | 69% | 14.2 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  KC | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 210 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  SF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 197 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LV | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 220 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  BAL | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 60 | 288 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CHI | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 121 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  MIN | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  NYG | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 |
| 2024 wk 18 | CHI | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 136 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 16 |  NO | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 34 | 0 |
| 2024 wk 8 |  JAX | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 56 | 1 |