Xavier Hutchinson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 25.8
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 68%
26 yrs · 6′3″, 210 lb · Iowa State · 2023 rd 6 pk 205
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 5.9 | 0.0 – 14.6 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 28.1 | 5.8 – 73.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 0.0 – 5.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.8 | 6.0 – 34.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 31.5 | 3.2 – 81.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 20.2% | no range | +395 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.2% | no range | +2275 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.00 | 19% | 0.47 | 1.00 | 64% | 7.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 0.00 | 20% | 0.46 | 1.00 | 68% | 6.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 31.0 | 0.00 | 16% | 0.38 | 1.00 | 59% | 5.6 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.00 | 19% | 0.47 | 1.00 | 64% | 7.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 21 | 9 | 120 | 0 | 19% | 1 | 1 | 64% | 21 |
| 2025 | 16 | 57 | 35 | 428 | 3 | 11% | 4 | 7 | 58% | 98 |
| 2024 | 14 | 26 | 12 | 117 | 0 | 6% | 2 | 2 | 49% | 24 |
| 2023 | 12 | 19 | 8 | 90 | 0 | 5% | 1 | 1 | 33% | 22 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 48 | 92% | 0.9 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 48 | 90% | 14.5 | -1.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 48 | 90% | 13.9 | -0.7 |
| Anytime TD | 48 | 11% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 47 | 2% vs 2% | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 35 | 83% | 7.8 | +0.1 |
| Longest rush | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | -0.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  IND | 54% | 6 | 3 | 51 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CIN | 81% | 9 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  BUF | 56% | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  NE | 84% | 13 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  PIT | 66% | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 | IND | 79% | 9 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  LAC | 48% | 3 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  LV | 49% | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  ARI | 30% | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  KC | 40% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |