Tyjae Spears
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 15.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 46%
25 yrs · 5′11″, 200 lb · Tulane · 2023 rd 3 pk 81
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 23.4 | 0.0 – 55.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.2 | 1.0 – 10.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 10.3 | 2.1 – 20.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 10.9 | 0.0 – 29.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.0 | 0.0 – 4.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 10.8 | 2.2 – 26.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 34.4 | 0.0 – 74.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 11.0% | no range | +811 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.3% | no range | +7533 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.3 | 19.3 | 0.00 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 1.00 | 44% | 4.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.4 | 15.6 | 0.00 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 9.8 | 1.00 | 46% | 4.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.1 | 18.6 | 0.10 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 17.8 | 2.00 | 45% | 7.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 4.3 | 19.3 | 0.00 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 1.00 | 44% | 4.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 13 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 44% | 14 |
| 2025 | 13 | 72 | 283 | 2 | 50 | 45 | 264 | 17 | 46% | 112 |
| 2024 | 12 | 84 | 312 | 4 | 35 | 30 | 224 | 15 | 43% | 114 |
| 2023 | 17 | 100 | 453 | 2 | 70 | 52 | 385 | 17 | 52% | 154 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often ankle
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 42 | 74% | 15.9 | +1.4 |
| Receptions | 42 | 86% | 1.5 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 42 | 83% | 16.1 | +2.2 |
| Rush attempts | 42 | 90% | 2.8 | +0.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 42 | 76% | 23.8 | +3.1 |
| Anytime TD | 42 | 17% vs 17% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 42 | 5% vs 5% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 42 | 81% | 6.0 | +0.7 |
| Longest reception | 39 | 64% | 8.9 | +1.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NYG | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  PHI | 36% | 2 | 2 | 29 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  NYJ | 50% | 4 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  JAX | 46% | 7 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NO | 53% | 2 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  KC | 47% | 5 | 5 | 53 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  SF | 42% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CLE | 42% | 4 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | JAX | 47% | 6 | 6 | 25 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  SEA | 43% | 5 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |