Puka Nacua
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 43.5
- Implied team total
- 23.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 77%
25 yrs · 6′2″, 216 lb · BYU; Washington · 2023 rd 5 pk 177
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.5 | 0.0 – 18.6 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 83.4 | 22.5 – 131.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 6.3 | 1.0 – 8.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 28.0 | 11.8 – 47.2 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 78.0 | 24.0 – 146.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 36.0% | no range | +177 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 9.2% | no range | +986 | Differs from form |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 98.3 | 0.33 | 33% | 0.77 | 1.00 | 80% | 18.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 96.4 | 0.60 | 34% | 0.76 | 1.60 | 77% | 23.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 117.4 | 0.80 | 33% | 0.74 | 1.63 | 71% | 25.5 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 74.0 | 0.00 | 33% | 0.82 | 1.00 | 70% | 12.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 70% | 12 |
| 2025 | 16 | 166 | 129 | 1,715 | 10 | 30% | 11 | 17 | 68% | 375 |
| 2024 | 11 | 106 | 79 | 990 | 3 | 32% | 8 | 14 | 70% | 207 |
| 2023 | 17 | 160 | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 29% | 11 | 16 | 87% | 299 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
7 injury entries across 4 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hip
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 50 | 70% | 2.6 | -0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 50 | 62% | 45.5 | +2.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 50 | 56% | 47.1 | +2.5 |
| Anytime TD | 50 | 37% vs 42% | 0.5 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 50 | 88% | 10.5 | +1.8 |
| First TD scorer | 50 | 9% vs 8% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 24 | 83% | 6.1 | +2.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 1 |  SF | 70% | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  SEA | 79% | 14 | 9 | 165 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  CHI | 90% | 10 | 5 | 56 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  CAR | 79% | 18 | 10 | 111 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  ARI | 69% | 11 | 10 | 76 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  ATL | 74% | 10 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | SEA | 78% | 16 | 12 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  DET | 56% | 11 | 9 | 181 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | ARI | 44% | 11 | 7 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 13 | CAR | 73% | 9 | 6 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |