C.J. Stroud
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 25.8
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 100%
24 yrs · 6′3″, 218 lb · Ohio State · 2023 rd 1 pk 2
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 247.6 | 136.7 – 338.8 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.6 | 0.0 – 2.8 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 21.6 | 12.5 – 29.6 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 35.0 | 20.5 – 44.5 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.8 | 0.0 – 2.0 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 262.5 | 153.8 – 356.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 41.9 | 20.2 – 59.4 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 14.9 | 0.0 – 35.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 3.3 | 1.0 – 5.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 8.8 | 2.1 – 20.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 11.4% | no range | +781 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.8% | no range | +5602 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 40.0 | 24.0 | 264.7 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 3.33 | 15.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 39.8 | 22.6 | 251.2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.0 | 13.0 | 3.20 | 11.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 34.5 | 20.3 | 231.9 | 1.30 | 0.70 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 2.00 | 13.7 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 40.0 | 24.0 | 264.7 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.3 | 18.0 | 3.33 | 15.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 120 | 72 | 794 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 54 | 10 | 45 |
| 2025 | 14 | 423 | 273 | 3,041 | 19 | 8 | 48 | 209 | 23 | 209 |
| 2024 | 17 | 532 | 336 | 3,727 | 20 | 12 | 52 | 233 | 52 | 220 |
| 2023 | 15 | 499 | 319 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 167 | 38 | 276 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 2 seasons · 5 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 52 | 81% | 55.2 | +8.8 |
| Passing TDs | 52 | 90% | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| Completions | 52 | 83% | 4.5 | +0.7 |
| Rushing yards | 52 | 83% | 11.1 | +0.2 |
| Pass attempts | 52 | 83% | 6.4 | +0.4 |
| Interceptions | 52 | 90% | 0.7 | -0.0 |
| Pass + rush yards | 52 | 77% | 56.8 | +9.2 |
| Rush attempts | 52 | 90% | 1.7 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 52 | 14% vs 8% | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 52 | 3% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest completion | 52 | 79% | 12.8 | +1.7 |
| Longest rush | 48 | 77% | 6.3 | +0.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  IND | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 167 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CIN | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 353 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  BUF | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 274 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  NE | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 212 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  PIT | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | IND | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 169 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  LAC | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 244 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  LV | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 187 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  ARI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 260 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  KC | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 203 | 1 |