Roman Wilson
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 38.5
- Implied team total
- 20.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 49%
25 yrs · 6′0″, 192 lb · Michigan · 2024 rd 3 pk 84
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Line | Price | P(over) | Value | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | |||||||
| Longest rush | 6.3 | 0.0 – 15.6 | – | – | – | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | |||||||
| Receiving yards | 21.2 | 0.0 – 65.3 | 21.5 | -116 / -109DK | 48% | +0.4%under | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.3 | 0.0 – 4.2 | 2.5 | +126 / -161DK | 34% | +6.9%under | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.6 | 4.6 – 34.4 | 13.5 | -107 / -121DK | 54% | +4.5%over | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 24.8 | 0.0 – 67.2 | – | – | – | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | |||||||
| Anytime TD | 12.4% | no range | yes | +480 / –FD | – | no bet | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.4% | no range | yes | +1900 / –DK | – | no bet | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 38.0 | 0.33 | 17% | 0.41 | – | 58% | 9.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 22.8 | 0.20 | 13% | 0.38 | – | 49% | 5.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 26.1 | 0.30 | 11% | 0.30 | 1.00 | 49% | 6.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 38.0 | 0.33 | 17% | 0.41 | – | 58% | 9.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 114 | 1 | 17% | 1 | – | 58% | 28 |
| 2025 | 9 | 21 | 12 | 166 | 2 | 8% | 2 | 1 | 42% | 39 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 9 | 89% | 1.0 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 9 | 89% | 18.4 | +3.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 9 | 89% | 18.1 | +4.1 |
| Anytime TD | 9 | 12% vs 22% | 0.3 | +0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 9 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 7 | 71% | 10.6 | +1.4 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  CIN | 39% | 6 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  NE | 79% | 6 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  ATL | 55% | 6 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  BUF | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  CHI | 28% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | CIN | 57% | 2 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  LAC | 35% | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  IND | 47% | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 8 |  GB | 46% | 5 | 4 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 7 | CIN | 58% | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |