Drake Maye
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 21.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 96%
24 yrs · 6′4″, 225 lb · North Carolina · 2024 rd 1 pk 3
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 217.0 | 75.7 – 310.6 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.2 | 0.0 – 2.5 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 20.0 | 10.7 – 27.6 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 30.0 | 14.3 – 41.2 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 2.1 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 242.8 | 107.8 – 322.7 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 37.6 | 18.5 – 58.0 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 25.8 | 4.9 – 53.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 5.1 | 1.0 – 9.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 11.8 | 4.1 – 21.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 23.2% | no range | +330 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.1% | no range | +2349 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 26.7 | 17.0 | 195.0 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 5.0 | 27.3 | 3.00 | 7.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 28.8 | 17.6 | 193.2 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 6.0 | 36.8 | 4.00 | 11.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 28.3 | 18.5 | 224.0 | 1.50 | 1.10 | 6.2 | 34.8 | 3.40 | 15.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 26.7 | 17.0 | 195.0 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 5.0 | 27.3 | 3.00 | 7.2 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 80 | 51 | 585 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 82 | 9 | 22 |
| 2025 | 17 | 492 | 354 | 4,394 | 31 | 8 | 103 | 450 | 47 | 352 |
| 2024 | 13 | 338 | 225 | 2,276 | 15 | 10 | 54 | 421 | 34 | 177 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · most often concussion
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First TD scorer | 34 | 4% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Passing yards | 34 | 85% | 57.6 | +15.4 |
| Passing TDs | 34 | 85% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 34 | 65% | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| Rushing yards | 34 | 76% | 16.3 | +2.7 |
| Pass attempts | 34 | 74% | 8.4 | +1.3 |
| Interceptions | 34 | 94% | 0.6 | +0.0 |
| Pass + rush yards | 34 | 88% | 61.7 | +13.2 |
| Rush attempts | 34 | 85% | 2.0 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 34 | 21% vs 18% | 0.3 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 33 | 85% | 6.6 | +1.2 |
| Longest completion | 33 | 91% | 8.3 | +1.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  JAX | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 199 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  PIT | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 208 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  SEA | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 47 | 178 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 22 | SEA | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 295 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  DEN | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 86 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  HOU | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 179 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  LAC | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 66 | 268 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  MIA | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 191 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  NYJ | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 256 | 5 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  BAL | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 380 | 2 |