Xavier Worthy
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 26.0
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 82%
23 yrs · 5′11″, 165 lb · Texas · 2024 rd 1 pk 28
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.3 | 0.0 – 15.1 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 34.5 | 6.7 – 74.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.0 | 1.0 – 5.0 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.1 | 6.3 – 35.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 42.2 | 5.4 – 82.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 20.0% | no range | +401 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 6.5% | no range | +1441 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 21.0 | 0.33 | 16% | 0.37 | 2.00 | 82% | 7.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 20.8 | 0.20 | 16% | 0.42 | 2.00 | 82% | 5.7 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 33.9 | 0.10 | 15% | 0.40 | 1.67 | 79% | 6.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 21.0 | 0.33 | 16% | 0.37 | 2.00 | 82% | 7.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 63 | 1 | 16% | 1 | 4 | 82% | 22 |
| 2025 | 14 | 73 | 42 | 532 | 1 | 16% | 6 | 6 | 71% | 110 |
| 2024 | 16 | 98 | 59 | 638 | 6 | 18% | 7 | 19 | 68% | 187 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 1 season · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often shoulder
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 33 | 79% | 1.5 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 33 | 85% | 23.7 | +2.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 33 | 85% | 27.9 | +2.5 |
| Anytime TD | 33 | 28% vs 33% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 33 | 8% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 30 | 93% | 10.0 | +0.7 |
| Longest rush | 23 | 74% | 6.2 | +1.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  MIA | 83% | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  IND | 86% | 7 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  DEN | 77% | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | DEN | 79% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  TEN | 84% | 3 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LAC | 67% | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  HOU | 77% | 4 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DAL | 88% | 6 | 4 | 61 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | IND | 77% | 8 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | DEN | 76% | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |