Michael Penix Jr.
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 92%
26 yrs · 6′3″, 220 lb · Washington; Indiana · 2024 rd 1 pk 8
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 239.0 | 117.7 – 318.4 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | 0.0 – 2.6 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 20.2 | 11.0 – 28.9 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 31.1 | 18.3 – 42.8 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 244.2 | 131.3 – 324.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 38.2 | 19.4 – 57.5 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 5.2 | 0.0 – 24.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 1.8 | 0.0 – 4.5 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 7.5 | 0.7 – 18.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 8.5% | no range | +1072 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.7% | no range | +5773 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 23.0 | 14.3 | 202.7 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.00 | 11.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 28.8 | 17.2 | 214.0 | 1.20 | 0.20 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 1.20 | 13.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 30.1 | 18.4 | 223.8 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 1.30 | 13.4 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 25.0 | 18.0 | 256.0 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 0.00 | 14.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 25 | 18 | 256 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2025 | 9 | 276 | 166 | 1,982 | 9 | 3 | 21 | 70 | 13 | 120 |
| 2024 | 5 | 105 | 61 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 44 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 14 | 79% | 83.0 | -3.1 |
| Passing TDs | 14 | 93% | 0.7 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 14 | 93% | 6.5 | -0.3 |
| Rushing yards | 14 | 79% | 6.1 | -0.5 |
| Pass attempts | 14 | 79% | 11.1 | +0.4 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 93% | 0.6 | -0.0 |
| Pass + rush yards | 14 | 86% | 79.7 | +3.5 |
| Rush attempts | 14 | 93% | 1.3 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 14 | 10% vs 14% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 14 | 2% vs 0% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest completion | 14 | 93% | 8.9 | +2.2 |
| Longest rush | 10 | 100% | 2.8 | +0.3 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
