Tyler Warren
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 89%
24 yrs · 6′6″, 256 lb · Penn State · 2025 rd 1 pk 14
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 40.8 | 7.8 – 77.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.6 | 1.0 – 7.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 16.0 | 5.1 – 33.0 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 44.1 | 8.0 – 87.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 24.6% | no range | +306 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.6% | no range | +1678 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 29.7 | 0.67 | 23% | 0.38 | 1.50 | 92% | 13.1 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 31.6 | 0.40 | 22% | 0.38 | 1.67 | 89% | 11.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 28.9 | 0.30 | 21% | 0.40 | 1.71 | 88% | 9.2 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 29.7 | 0.67 | 23% | 0.38 | 1.50 | 92% | 13.1 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 89 | 2 | 23% | 1 | 3 | 92% | 39 |
| 2025 | 17 | 112 | 76 | 817 | 4 | 21% | 7 | 23 | 84% | 189 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 1 season · most often illness
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 17 | 88% | 1.7 | -0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 17 | 82% | 22.1 | -3.1 |
| Rush + rec yards | 17 | 82% | 22.9 | -3.9 |
| Anytime TD | 17 | 31% vs 29% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 17 | 88% | 5.8 | +0.3 |
| First TD scorer | 17 | 8% vs 18% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  HOU | 94% | 10 | 9 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  KC | 89% | 7 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  BAL | 93% | 5 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 | HOU | 82% | 8 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  JAX | 86% | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  SF | 88% | 9 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  SEA | 82% | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 | JAX | 93% | 6 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | HOU | 87% | 4 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 12 | KC | 86% | 7 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |