Cam Ward

TEN@

BAL

97% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 42.5
Implied team total: 15.5
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 82%

24 yrs · 6′2″, 219 lb · Miami; Washington State; Incarnate Word · 2025 rd 1 pk 1

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	196.1	108.9 – 285.6	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.0	0.0 – 2.3	–	Solid
Completions	19.3	11.0 – 27.3	–	Solid
Pass attempts	30.8	16.5 – 40.9	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.9	0.0 – 2.2	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	209.9	114.8 – 306.0	–	Solid
Longest completion	36.5	19.9 – 55.5	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	13.8	0.0 – 35.8	–	Solid
Rush attempts	3.1	0.0 – 6.1	–	Solid
Longest rush	9.1	1.8 – 17.9	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	11.4%	no range	+774	Solid
First TD scorer	2.5%	no range	+3916	Differs from form

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	29.3	18.3	168.0	0.67	0.33	3.0	10.0	1.67	13.7
Last 5	5	26.2	15.8	161.4	0.80	0.20	2.6	10.2	1.80	13.5
Last 10	10	29.6	18.4	171.9	1.10	0.20	2.7	11.0	1.90	14.2
2026 season	3	29.3	18.3	168.0	0.67	0.33	3.0	10.0	1.67	13.7

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	88	55	504	2	1	9	30	5	41
2025	17	540	323	3,169	15	7	39	159	55	187

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

No injury report entries on record. Reports go back to 2009, so this is genuinely a clean sheet rather than missing data — unless he arrived before then.

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	17	94%	56.1	+8.1
Passing TDs	17	100%	0.6	+0.1
Completions	17	88%	5.5	+0.2
Rushing yards	17	82%	10.0	+1.2
Pass attempts	17	82%	8.5	-1.0
Interceptions	17	100%	0.5	-0.1
Pass + rush yards	17	94%	53.2	+10.1
Rush attempts	17	94%	1.7	-0.1
Anytime TD	17	10% vs 12%	0.2	-0.0
First TD scorer	17	2% vs 6%	0.1	-0.0
Longest completion	17	94%	7.2	+0.8
Longest rush	14	79%	4.3	+0.5

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	NYG	100%	1	2	181	1
2026 wk 2	PHI	100%	4	7	183	2
2026 wk 1	NYJ	100%	4	21	140	1
2025 wk 18	JAX	9%	2	11	52	1
2025 wk 17	NO	100%	2	10	251	2
2025 wk 16	KC	100%	4	9	228	2
2025 wk 15	SF	100%	1	2	170	2
2025 wk 14	CLE	100%	2	4	117	2
2025 wk 13	JAX	100%	1	7	141	0
2025 wk 12	SEA	100%	6	37	256	2