Mike Evans
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 62%
33 yrs · 6′5″, 231 lb · Texas A&M · 2014 rd 1 pk 7
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.4 | 0.0 – 15.4 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 47.2 | 8.9 – 89.0 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.7 | 1.0 – 5.2 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 22.8 | 7.1 – 43.1 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 41.1 | 7.0 – 91.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 30.7% | no range | +226 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.6% | no range | +1690 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 45.7 | 0.67 | 19% | 0.49 | 2.00 | 54% | 12.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 40.4 | 0.60 | 17% | 0.45 | 1.50 | 62% | 11.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 45.4 | 0.50 | 23% | 0.57 | 1.83 | 60% | 11.2 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 45.7 | 0.67 | 19% | 0.49 | 2.00 | 54% | 12.6 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 137 | 2 | 19% | 1 | 2 | 54% | 38 |
| 2025 | 8 | 62 | 30 | 368 | 3 | 24% | 5 | 9 | 66% | 85 |
| 2024 | 14 | 110 | 74 | 1,004 | 11 | 25% | 9 | 15 | 72% | 240 |
| 2023 | 17 | 136 | 79 | 1,255 | 13 | 25% | 11 | 17 | 79% | 283 |
| 2022 | 15 | 127 | 77 | 1,124 | 6 | 20% | 8 | 15 | 84% | 225 |
| 2021 | 16 | 114 | 74 | 1,035 | 14 | 17% | 7 | 20 | 83% | 263 |
| 2020 | 16 | 109 | 70 | 1,006 | 13 | 18% | 7 | 21 | 80% | 249 |
| 2019 | 13 | 118 | 67 | 1,157 | 8 | 24% | 8 | 19 | 85% | 233 |
| 2018 | 16 | 138 | 86 | 1,524 | 8 | 23% | 9 | 15 | 84% | 284 |
| 2017 | 15 | 136 | 71 | 1,001 | 5 | 24% | 9 | 21 | 87% | 203 |
| 2016 | 16 | 173 | 96 | 1,321 | 12 | 30% | 12 | 21 | 83% | 304 |
| 2015 | 15 | 148 | 74 | 1,206 | 3 | 30% | 11 | 17 | 84% | 213 |
| 2014 | 15 | 123 | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 26% | 10 | 15 | 83% | 245 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
13 injury entries across 9 seasons · 11 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 109 | 82% | 2.1 | +0.2 |
| Receiving yards | 109 | 71% | 34.4 | +4.8 |
| Rush + rec yards | 109 | 73% | 34.7 | +4.6 |
| Anytime TD | 109 | 34% vs 50% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 109 | 7% vs 12% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 107 | 78% | 10.7 | +1.4 |
| Longest rush | 1 | 100% | 2.5 | – |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  ARI | 33% | 6 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIA | 54% | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LA | 75% | 7 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CAR | 75% | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | MIA | 75% | 7 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 | CAR | 66% | 9 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  ATL | 55% | 12 | 6 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 7 |  DET | 20% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 3 |  NYJ | 72% | 9 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 2 |  HOU | 79% | 11 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |