Courtland Sutton
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.3
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 83%
30 yrs · 6′4″, 216 lb · SMU · 2018 rd 2 pk 40
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.8 | 0.0 – 15.5 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 39.0 | 9.5 – 91.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 1.0 – 5.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.8 | 7.6 – 39.8 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 45.1 | 5.1 – 90.7 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 19.4% | no range | +416 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 7.5% | no range | +1225 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 27.3 | 0.00 | 18% | 0.51 | 1.67 | 79% | 5.4 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 30.4 | 0.20 | 19% | 0.51 | 1.50 | 83% | 7.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 45.8 | 0.30 | 22% | 0.59 | 1.88 | 82% | 10.3 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 27.3 | 0.00 | 18% | 0.51 | 1.67 | 79% | 5.4 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 18% | 2 | 5 | 79% | 16 |
| 2025 | 17 | 124 | 74 | 1,017 | 7 | 21% | 9 | 20 | 85% | 220 |
| 2024 | 16 | 135 | 81 | 1,081 | 8 | 26% | 12 | 23 | 85% | 240 |
| 2023 | 16 | 90 | 59 | 772 | 10 | 21% | 9 | 19 | 79% | 190 |
| 2022 | 15 | 109 | 64 | 829 | 2 | 23% | 8 | 14 | 88% | 159 |
| 2021 | 17 | 98 | 58 | 776 | 2 | 18% | 8 | 14 | 85% | 150 |
| 2020 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 16% | 0 | – | 40% | 10 |
| 2019 | 16 | 124 | 72 | 1,112 | 6 | 27% | 11 | 20 | 92% | 222 |
| 2018 | 16 | 84 | 42 | 704 | 4 | 16% | 7 | 9 | 76% | 136 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
6 injury entries across 4 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 101 | 85% | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 101 | 74% | 27.8 | +0.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 101 | 76% | 28.6 | +0.1 |
| Anytime TD | 101 | 30% vs 33% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 101 | 7% vs 9% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 99 | 79% | 10.4 | -0.1 |
| Longest rush | 3 | 100% | 1.8 | +0.2 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LA | 87% | 7 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  JAX | 73% | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  KC | 76% | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  NE | 93% | 5 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  BUF | 85% | 9 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LAC | 78% | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | KC | 82% | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | JAX | 94% | 12 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  GB | 88% | 10 | 7 | 113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  LV | 65% | 10 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |