Lamar Jackson

BALvs

TEN

96% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 42.5
Implied team total: 27.0
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 89%

29 yrs · 6′2″, 205 lb · Louisville · 2018 rd 1 pk 32

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	201.6	119.9 – 298.3	–	Solid
Passing TDs	1.6	0.0 – 3.1	–	Solid
Completions	15.1	9.0 – 26.3	–	Solid
Pass attempts	25.6	12.7 – 35.9	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.7	0.0 – 1.8	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	234.8	141.1 – 325.5	–	Solid
Longest completion	37.9	19.8 – 55.9	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	33.1	3.8 – 58.2	–	Solid
Rush attempts	5.0	1.0 – 8.0	–	Solid
Longest rush	16.0	4.1 – 25.9	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	23.5%	no range	+325	Solid
First TD scorer	7.8%	no range	+1184	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	25.3	17.7	248.3	1.33	0.33	5.7	41.3	1.67	20.1
Last 5	5	20.8	14.2	216.8	1.40	0.40	4.6	28.0	1.60	17.1
Last 10	10	23.1	14.2	204.5	1.00	0.70	4.9	25.7	2.30	13.9
2026 season	3	25.3	17.7	248.3	1.33	0.33	5.7	41.3	1.67	20.1

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	76	53	745	4	1	17	124	5	60
2025	13	302	192	2,549	21	7	67	349	36	215
2024	17	474	316	4,172	41	4	139	915	23	430
2023	16	457	307	3,678	24	7	148	821	37	331
2022	12	326	203	2,242	17	7	112	764	26	236
2021	12	382	246	2,882	16	13	133	767	38	240
2020	15	376	242	2,757	26	9	159	1,005	29	333
2019	15	401	265	3,127	36	6	176	1,206	23	416
2018	16	170	99	1,201	6	3	147	695	16	158

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

11 injury entries across 6 seasons · 12 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee

2025Hamstring×3Back

2023Not injury related - resting player

2022Knee×6Illness

2021Ankle×4Illness×2Back

2020Knee

2019IllnessQuadricep

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	107	88%	55.0	+2.3
Passing TDs	107	79%	1.1	+0.1
Completions	107	89%	4.2	-0.1
Rushing yards	107	76%	26.7	-0.3
Pass attempts	107	81%	7.3	-0.2
Interceptions	107	91%	0.7	-0.0
Pass + rush yards	107	86%	59.2	+4.1
Rush attempts	107	87%	3.3	+0.2
Anytime TD	107	32% vs 25%	0.4	-0.0
First TD scorer	107	8% vs 7%	0.1	-0.0
Longest rush	107	82%	8.7	+0.3
Longest completion	107	80%	11.7	+0.7

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	DAL	100%	6	50	186	2
2026 wk 2	NO	100%	4	34	235	1
2026 wk 1	IND	100%	7	40	324	2
2025 wk 18	PIT	100%	4	9	238	3
2025 wk 16	NE	47%	2	7	101	0
2025 wk 15	CIN	88%	2	26	150	2
2025 wk 14	PIT	100%	7	43	219	2
2025 wk 13	CIN	100%	6	27	246	0
2025 wk 12	NYJ	100%	7	11	153	0
2025 wk 11	CLE	100%	4	10	193	0