Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 66%
30 yrs · 6′0″, 215 lb · South Carolina · 2019 rd 2 pk 36
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 8.0 | 0.5 – 18.1 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 46.0 | 7.5 – 81.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.9 | 1.0 – 5.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 20.5 | 6.8 – 39.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 49.6 | 12.2 – 96.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 27.4% | no range | +265 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.6% | no range | +1690 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 0.67 | 13% | 0.25 | 3.00 | 59% | 13.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 49.4 | 0.40 | 17% | 0.32 | 1.50 | 66% | 11.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 49.0 | 0.30 | 21% | 0.38 | 1.00 | 67% | 10.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 53.0 | 0.67 | 13% | 0.25 | 3.00 | 59% | 13.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 159 | 2 | 13% | 1 | 3 | 59% | 40 |
| 2025 | 16 | 99 | 72 | 727 | 5 | 25% | 8 | 13 | 72% | 188 |
| 2024 | 15 | 81 | 51 | 670 | 3 | 19% | 6 | 14 | 73% | 156 |
| 2023 | 15 | 89 | 60 | 892 | 7 | 21% | 6 | 18 | 74% | 244 |
| 2022 | 13 | 94 | 56 | 632 | 2 | 24% | 6 | 13 | 76% | 168 |
| 2021 | 16 | 121 | 77 | 1,405 | 6 | 26% | 10 | 9 | 80% | 339 |
| 2020 | 7 | 44 | 33 | 391 | 1 | 19% | 2 | 2 | 64% | 81 |
| 2019 | 15 | 81 | 57 | 802 | 3 | 18% | 6 | 18 | 72% | 189 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
18 injury entries across 7 seasons · 18 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 109 | 84% | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 109 | 72% | 32.0 | +3.6 |
| Rush + rec yards | 109 | 74% | 33.0 | +2.8 |
| Anytime TD | 109 | 31% vs 40% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 109 | 9% vs 11% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 105 | 77% | 12.0 | +2.0 |
| Longest rush | 87 | 70% | 7.7 | +1.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  ARI | 76% | 0 | 0 | 80 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIA | 60% | 4 | 3 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LA | 42% | 7 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  PHI | 71% | 5 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  DAL | 82% | 4 | 2 | 68 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 | PHI | 81% | 4 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NYG | 61% | 5 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  MIN | 52% | 6 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  DEN | 70% | 7 | 5 | 64 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | MIA | 75% | 8 | 7 | 74 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |