J.K. Dobbins
RB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 45%
27 yrs · 5′10″, 212 lb · Ohio State · 2020 rd 2 pk 55
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 58.6 | 12.0 – 99.1 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 12.8 | 1.0 – 19.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 17.3 | 5.0 – 32.2 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 5.3 | 0.0 – 21.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 0.9 | 0.0 – 2.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 9.6 | 0.4 – 21.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 63.9 | 14.2 – 108.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 34.4% | no range | +191 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 7.5% | no range | +1225 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 11.7 | 40.3 | 0.00 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.00 | 42% | 4.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 13.6 | 51.8 | 0.00 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.33 | 45% | 6.0 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.7 | 67.1 | 0.10 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 2.25 | 47% | 8.4 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 11.7 | 40.3 | 0.00 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 3.00 | 42% | 4.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Car | Rush yd | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | RZ tch | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 35 | 121 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 42% | 14 |
| 2025 | 10 | 153 | 772 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 37 | 20 | 51% | 116 |
| 2024 | 13 | 195 | 905 | 9 | 38 | 32 | 153 | 36 | 63% | 192 |
| 2023 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 2 | 47% | 12 |
| 2022 | 8 | 92 | 520 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 16 | 42% | 81 |
| 2020 | 15 | 134 | 805 | 9 | 24 | 18 | 120 | 31 | 46% | 169 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 51 | 86% | 25.0 | +5.0 |
| Receptions | 51 | 96% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 51 | 88% | 10.7 | -1.0 |
| Rush attempts | 51 | 90% | 3.1 | +0.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 51 | 84% | 27.2 | +2.8 |
| Anytime TD | 51 | 40% vs 45% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 51 | 10% vs 8% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 51 | 75% | 10.6 | +2.7 |
| Longest reception | 39 | 69% | 6.4 | +0.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
