Jaylen Waddle
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 61%
27 yrs · 5′10″, 185 lb · Alabama · 2021 rd 1 pk 6
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 8.4 | 0.0 – 16.0 | – | Solid |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 51.3 | 10.9 – 97.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.1 | 1.0 – 5.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 23.4 | 7.9 – 44.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 53.8 | 7.5 – 104.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 28.6% | no range | +250 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.0% | no range | +3197 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 50.0 | 0.00 | 23% | 0.61 | 1.00 | 70% | 9.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 44.4 | 0.00 | 21% | 0.55 | 1.00 | 61% | 8.5 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 47.4 | 0.20 | 25% | 0.70 | 1.00 | 73% | 10.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 50.0 | 0.00 | 23% | 0.61 | 1.00 | 70% | 9.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 20 | 11 | 150 | 0 | 23% | 2 | 2 | 70% | 29 |
| 2025 | 16 | 100 | 64 | 910 | 6 | 23% | 10 | 11 | 78% | 194 |
| 2024 | 15 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 2 | 16% | 6 | 13 | 79% | 150 |
| 2023 | 14 | 104 | 72 | 1,014 | 4 | 24% | 8 | 9 | 67% | 199 |
| 2022 | 17 | 117 | 75 | 1,356 | 8 | 21% | 8 | 9 | 74% | 259 |
| 2021 | 16 | 140 | 104 | 1,015 | 6 | 25% | 9 | 15 | 83% | 248 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
7 injury entries across 4 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 80 | 81% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 80 | 76% | 29.5 | +1.8 |
| Rush + rec yards | 80 | 80% | 29.0 | +1.6 |
| Anytime TD | 80 | 30% vs 30% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 80 | 7% vs 8% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 78 | 78% | 11.3 | +1.1 |
| Longest rush | 16 | 81% | 4.2 | +1.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LA | 73% | 7 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  JAX | 61% | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  KC | 75% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  TB | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CIN | 71% | 9 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  PIT | 84% | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  NYJ | 78% | 7 | 5 | 50 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NO | 92% | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  WAS | 84% | 7 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  BUF | 83% | 7 | 5 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |