Kyle Pitts
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 69%
25 yrs · 6′6″, 250 lb · Florida · 2021 rd 1 pk 4
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 29.1 | 6.5 – 74.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.6 | 1.0 – 5.9 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 17.0 | 5.2 – 32.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 32.1 | 6.5 – 80.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 17.9% | no range | +459 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.2% | no range | +3072 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.25 | – | 53% | 1.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 18.8 | 0.00 | 14% | 0.33 | 2.00 | 69% | 3.9 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 51.4 | 0.40 | 21% | 0.50 | 2.67 | 81% | 11.8 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 0.00 | 8% | 0.25 | – | 53% | 1.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | 1 | – | 53% | 4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 118 | 88 | 928 | 5 | 23% | 8 | 13 | 88% | 211 |
| 2024 | 17 | 74 | 47 | 602 | 4 | 14% | 5 | 13 | 62% | 131 |
| 2023 | 17 | 90 | 53 | 667 | 3 | 18% | 8 | 5 | 64% | 137 |
| 2022 | 10 | 59 | 28 | 356 | 2 | 28% | 6 | 5 | 72% | 76 |
| 2021 | 17 | 110 | 68 | 1,026 | 1 | 20% | 9 | 15 | 74% | 177 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 1 week ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 78 | 86% | 1.7 | +0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 78 | 73% | 24.6 | +3.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 78 | 73% | 25.0 | +2.9 |
| Anytime TD | 78 | 25% vs 15% | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 78 | 6% vs 6% | 0.1 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 76 | 78% | 9.7 | +0.7 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  GB | 59% | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  CAR | 38% | 3 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  PIT | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NO | 92% | 9 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  LA | 92% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  ARI | 87% | 9 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  TB | 96% | 12 | 11 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  SEA | 92% | 10 | 6 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  NYJ | 91% | 8 | 7 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | NO | 95% | 5 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |