Brock Purdy
QB
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 25.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 94%
26 yrs · 6′1″, 220 lb · Iowa State · 2022 rd 7 pk 262
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | ||||
| Passing yards | 251.9 | 141.1 – 355.1 | – | Solid |
| Passing TDs | 1.6 | 0.0 – 3.4 | – | Solid |
| Completions | 21.8 | 13.0 – 29.4 | – | Solid |
| Pass attempts | 33.2 | 20.0 – 42.8 | – | Solid |
| Interceptions | 0.7 | 0.0 – 2.2 | – | Solid |
| Pass + rush yards | 274.2 | 150.2 – 352.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest completion | 37.5 | 20.4 – 62.1 | – | Solid |
| Rushing | ||||
| Rushing yards | 22.3 | 3.6 – 49.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush attempts | 4.2 | 1.0 – 7.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest rush | 12.7 | 3.9 – 24.4 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 15.6% | no range | +539 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 3.9% | no range | +2442 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 27.7 | 20.0 | 263.0 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 3.3 | 31.0 | 0.00 | 27.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 28.2 | 18.6 | 238.2 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 4.8 | 30.8 | 0.60 | 20.6 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 29.4 | 20.0 | 237.9 | 2.30 | 0.70 | 4.3 | 26.2 | 1.10 | 21.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 27.7 | 20.0 | 263.0 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 3.3 | 31.0 | 0.00 | 27.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Att | Cmp | Pass yd | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yd | Sacked | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 83 | 60 | 789 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 93 | 0 | 81 |
| 2025 | 9 | 284 | 197 | 2,167 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 147 | 11 | 177 |
| 2024 | 15 | 455 | 300 | 3,864 | 20 | 12 | 66 | 323 | 31 | 267 |
| 2023 | 16 | 444 | 308 | 4,280 | 31 | 11 | 39 | 144 | 28 | 296 |
| 2022 | 9 | 170 | 114 | 1,374 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 106 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
6 injury entries across 4 seasons · 7 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often toe
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 57 | 14% vs 18% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| Passing yards | 57 | 74% | 62.3 | +10.2 |
| Passing TDs | 57 | 81% | 1.1 | +0.1 |
| Completions | 57 | 93% | 3.7 | +0.6 |
| Rushing yards | 57 | 77% | 10.5 | +0.2 |
| Pass attempts | 57 | 91% | 5.1 | +0.4 |
| Interceptions | 57 | 84% | 0.7 | +0.1 |
| Pass + rush yards | 57 | 72% | 63.9 | +11.8 |
| Rush attempts | 57 | 81% | 1.8 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 56 | 3% vs 2% | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| Longest completion | 55 | 80% | 11.3 | +1.2 |
| Longest rush | 51 | 84% | 4.7 | +0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  ARI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 34 | 297 | 4 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  MIA | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 287 | 3 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  LA | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 205 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  SEA | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 37 | 140 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  PHI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 24 | 262 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 | SEA | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 127 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  CHI | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 303 | 5 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  IND | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 295 | 5 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  TEN | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 295 | 3 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  CLE | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 168 | 2 |